MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for June Gold(CMX) as of Jan 01, 2009
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May
Tested Years		33	33	33	33	33	33	34	34	34	34	34
Closed Higher		16	17	22	13	15	17	14	15	12	14	14
Exceeded High		11	14	14	11	13	14	9	9	7	10	9
Scenario Percentage		69%	82%	64%	85%	87%	82%	64%	60%	58%	71%	64%
Avg Max Increase		13.81%	12.53%	9.21%	7.31%	12.53%	12.31%	6.06%	4.19%	9.60%	7.47%	4.05%
Max Increase		39.45%	36.10%	22.87%	14.68%	103.28%	59.53%	11.38%	7.05%	24.77%	14.45%	15.74%
Avg Days To Max Increase		18	20	15	13	13	15	15	15	16	17	13
Avg Max Decline		-1.96%	-0.42%	-1.39%	-1.70%	-1.30%	-1.27%	-2.44%	-1.25%	-1.00%	-1.07%	-1.01%
Max Decline		-4.27%	-3.52%	-4.84%	-6.23%	-5.47%	-6.10%	-6.94%	-2.92%	-1.99%	-5.25%	-2.79%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	4	10	3	8	5	7	2	5	7	4
2008 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes			Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May
Tested Years		33	33	33	33	33	33	34	34	34	34	34
Closed Lower		17	16	11	20	17	16	20	19	22	20	20
Penetrated Low		13	12	7	17	13	14	16	17	19	16	14
Scenario Percentage		76%	75%	64%	85%	76%	88%	80%	89%	86%	80%	70%
Avg Max Decline		4.47%	7.05%	4.92%	5.29%	7.45%	7.56%	5.28%	6.96%	4.72%	4.03%	4.75%
Max Decline		13.69%	21.71%	8.45%	14.61%	25.07%	21.53%	20.33%	29.03%	10.42%	10.02%	13.62%
Avg Days To Max Decline		16	20	15	12	16	17	14	15	19	16	14
Avg Max Increase		-0.89%	-0.78%	-1.00%	-2.11%	-1.90%	-0.64%	-2.22%	-1.85%	-1.63%	-2.62%	-1.46%
Max Increase		-4.49%	-5.67%	-2.06%	-7.69%	-5.81%	-2.53%	-12.92%	-8.85%	-7.23%	-6.06%	-4.87%
Avg Days to Max Increase		7	12	13	9	12	6	9	9	11	11	4
2008 Contract Condition						Yes				Yes	Yes
Action						No				Yes	Yes
High	708.6	717.0	704.4	769.1	818.6	865.0	858.9	945.2	983.8	1038.6	956.2	935.4
Low	672.1	680.0	669.7	706.2	746.5	793.0	795.5	851.5	893.0	909.0	864.1	846.4
Close/Last	681.2	697.2	699.0	767.9	813.8	800.7	850.4	932.5	980.0	921.5	865.1	887.3