MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for April Gold(CMX) as of May 17, 2024
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		21	16	23	24	24	18	24	22	22	18	19
Exceeded High		15	12	17	19	15	14	22	19	15	12	12
Scenario Percentage		71%	75%	74%	79%	63%	78%	92%	86%	68%	67%	63%
Avg Max Increase		6.66%	6.34%	12.21%	9.42%	7.88%	7.11%	10.45%	10.98%	6.26%	4.74%	5.86%
Max Increase		26.63%	15.14%	41.74%	36.12%	18.39%	17.89%	102.90%	60.45%	15.35%	9.37%	12.44%
Avg Days To Max Increase		13	16	14	15	14	12	16	14	17	14	17
Avg Max Decline		-1.15%	-1.08%	-1.62%	-0.64%	-1.76%	-1.74%	-1.99%	-1.03%	-2.36%	-1.24%	-0.76%
Max Decline		-4.91%	-4.21%	-4.29%	-3.49%	-6.30%	-6.01%	-9.36%	-9.23%	-7.12%	-4.74%	-1.85%
Avg Days to Max Decline		6	9	5	3	9	4	8	6	8	5	4
2024 Contract Condition				Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes
Action				No			Yes	Yes	No			Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		24	29	22	21	21	27	21	23	23	27	26
Penetrated Low		18	19	16	15	15	22	17	17	20	23	16
Scenario Percentage		75%	66%	73%	71%	71%	81%	81%	74%	87%	85%	62%
Avg Max Decline		6.31%	4.63%	5.10%	6.83%	4.75%	5.69%	5.94%	7.13%	5.37%	6.50%	2.45%
Max Decline		19.63%	11.79%	19.58%	18.24%	8.36%	14.95%	24.92%	21.29%	20.24%	30.36%	6.24%
Avg Days To Max Decline		17	14	16	19	16	14	15	16	14	12	11
Avg Max Increase		-1.44%	-1.19%	-0.93%	-1.87%	-2.07%	-2.13%	-1.16%	-0.93%	-2.13%	-1.71%	-0.87%
Max Increase		-4.67%	-5.30%	-5.00%	-11.21%	-6.73%	-7.69%	-5.64%	-6.30%	-12.86%	-8.78%	-3.63%
Avg Days to Max Increase		7	8	7	11	13	10	7	7	8	8	4
2024 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes				Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes				Yes	Not Yet
High	2143.4	2154.7	2074.8	2065.5	2043.6	2018.8	2058.5	2091.4	2171.5	2107.7	2083.2	2234.1
Low	2064.4	2031.7	1978.5	1986.6	1953.3	1900.4	1861.7	1975.1	2007.4	2023.3	1996.4	2047.0
Close/Last	2087.7	2055.9	2007.1	2049.4	2005.5	1904.0	2034.1	2076.7	2091.8	2067.4	2054.7	2217.4