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ScenarioSM Study for April Gold(CMX) as of Sep 16, 2022 | ||||||||||||
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Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
Tested Month | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar |
Tested Years | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | |
Closed Higher | 22 | 16 | 24 | 26 | 26 | 19 | 22 | 22 | 23 | 20 | 17 | |
Exceeded High | 16 | 12 | 19 | 21 | 17 | 14 | 20 | 20 | 16 | 14 | 10 | |
Scenario Percentage | 73% | 75% | 79% | 81% | 65% | 74% | 91% | 91% | 70% | 70% | 59% | |
Avg Max Increase | 6.80% | 6.34% | 11.66% | 10.03% | 8.29% | 6.97% | 10.73% | 11.10% | 6.71% | 4.76% | 5.97% | |
Max Increase | 26.63% | 15.14% | 41.74% | 36.12% | 18.39% | 17.89% | 102.90% | 60.45% | 15.35% | 9.37% | 12.44% | |
Avg Days To Max Increase | 14 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 14 | 13 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 14 | 19 | |
Avg Max Decline | -1.25% | -1.08% | -1.78% | -0.66% | -1.59% | -1.56% | -2.20% | -1.31% | -2.08% | -1.34% | -0.88% | |
Max Decline | -4.91% | -4.21% | -4.29% | -3.49% | -6.30% | -6.01% | -9.36% | -9.23% | -7.12% | -4.74% | -1.85% | |
Avg Days to Max Decline | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | |
2022 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |||||
Action | No | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Not Yet |
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