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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for April Gold(CMX) as of Aug 05, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   22 16 24 26 26 19 22 22 23 20 17
Exceeded High   16 12 19 21 17 14 20 20 16 14 10
Scenario Percentage   73% 75% 79% 81% 65% 74% 91% 91% 70% 70% 59%
Avg Max Increase   6.80% 6.34% 11.66% 10.03% 8.29% 6.97% 10.73% 11.10% 6.71% 4.76% 5.97%
Max Increase   26.63% 15.14% 41.74% 36.12% 18.39% 17.89% 102.90% 60.45% 15.35% 9.37% 12.44%
Avg Days To Max Increase   14 16 16 16 14 13 16 16 16 14 19
Avg Max Decline   -1.25% -1.08% -1.78% -0.66% -1.59% -1.56% -2.20% -1.31% -2.08% -1.34% -0.88%
Max Decline   -4.91% -4.21% -4.29% -3.49% -6.30% -6.01% -9.36% -9.23% -7.12% -4.74% -1.85%
Avg Days to Max Decline   6 9 6 3 8 3 8 7 6 5 4
2022 Contract Condition   Yes   Yes Yes   Yes   Yes   Yes Yes
Action   No   No Yes   Yes   Yes   Yes Not Yet
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   23 29 21 19 19 26 23 23 22 25 28
Penetrated Low   17 17 15 13 13 21 17 17 19 23 19
Scenario Percentage   74% 59% 71% 68% 68% 81% 74% 74% 86% 92% 68%
Avg Max Decline   6.27% 4.60% 4.87% 6.88% 5.08% 5.90% 5.94% 7.13% 5.47% 6.50% 2.86%
Max Decline   19.63% 11.79% 19.58% 18.24% 8.36% 14.95% 24.92% 21.29% 20.24% 30.36% 9.56%
Avg Days To Max Decline   16 14 15 20 18 14 15 16 14 12 12
Avg Max Increase   -1.41% -1.16% -0.83% -2.02% -2.10% -2.14% -1.16% -0.93% -2.20% -1.71% -0.98%
Max Increase   -4.67% -5.30% -5.00% -11.21% -6.73% -7.69% -5.64% -6.30% -12.86% -8.78% -3.99%
Avg Days to Max Increase   6 7 7 12 15 10 7 7 8 8 4
2022 Contract Condition     Yes     Yes   Yes   Yes    
Action     Yes     No   Yes   No    
High 1803.4 1922.4 1919.3 1841.1 1839.6 1840.4 1818.6 1883.3 1833.6 1856.7 1976.5 2078.8
Low 1732.0 1783.0 1758.8 1782.6 1682.4 1725.0 1749.5 1762.8 1755.4 1780.6 1788.5 1888.3
Close/Last 1777.1 1913.1 1779.3 1820.8 1822.1 1759.7 1787.6 1778.3 1831.0 1796.4 1900.7 1949.2

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