MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for April Gold(CMX) as of Jun 08, 2020
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		21	15	23	25	27	19	23	22	23	21	17
Exceeded High		15	11	18	20	18	14	20	19	16	15	10
Scenario Percentage		71%	73%	78%	80%	67%	74%	87%	86%	70%	71%	59%
Avg Max Increase		6.31%	5.55%	12.02%	10.48%	9.08%	7.64%	10.73%	11.42%	6.71%	4.43%	6.17%
Max Increase		26.63%	13.22%	41.74%	36.12%	22.65%	17.89%	102.90%	60.45%	15.35%	7.67%	14.47%
Avg Days To Max Increase		13	16	16	17	14	13	16	17	16	16	19
Avg Max Decline		-1.08%	-1.02%	-1.85%	-0.66%	-1.67%	-1.51%	-2.20%	-1.57%	-2.08%	-1.42%	-0.88%
Max Decline		-4.91%	-4.21%	-4.29%	-3.49%	-6.30%	-6.01%	-9.36%	-9.23%	-7.12%	-4.74%	-1.85%
Avg Days to Max Decline		6	10	6	3	8	3	8	6	6	5	4
2020 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		No		Yes	Yes		Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		24	30	22	20	18	26	22	23	22	24	28
Penetrated Low		18	18	16	13	12	21	17	17	18	22	20
Scenario Percentage		75%	60%	73%	65%	67%	81%	77%	74%	82%	92%	71%
Avg Max Decline		6.92%	5.53%	5.39%	7.99%	4.90%	5.86%	6.53%	7.13%	5.25%	6.65%	2.81%
Max Decline		19.63%	21.13%	19.58%	20.91%	8.36%	14.95%	24.92%	21.29%	20.24%	30.36%	9.56%
Avg Days To Max Decline		16	15	16	20	17	13	15	16	14	13	12
Avg Max Increase		-1.56%	-1.14%	-0.79%	-1.62%	-1.96%	-2.14%	-1.45%	-0.93%	-2.25%	-1.71%	-0.94%
Max Increase		-4.67%	-5.30%	-5.00%	-11.21%	-6.73%	-7.69%	-5.91%	-6.30%	-12.86%	-8.78%	-3.99%
Avg Days to Max Increase		6	8	6	12	13	10	8	7	8	9	4
2020 Contract Condition						Yes		Yes			Yes
Action						Yes		No			Yes
High	1343.6	1333.3	1458.6	1477.1	1575.1	1576.0	1537.2	1530.5	1534.5	1619.6	1691.7	1704.3
Low	1303.0	1301.6	1335.1	1409.2	1424.0	1483.8	1478.0	1458.5	1465.8	1526.0	1551.1	1450.9
Close/Last	1315.2	1333.0	1434.0	1449.0	1541.0	1485.1	1526.9	1478.1	1529.3	1587.9	1566.7	1583.4