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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for April Gold(CMX) as of Jun 08, 2020
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   21 15 23 25 27 19 23 22 23 21 17
Exceeded High   15 11 18 20 18 14 20 19 16 15 10
Scenario Percentage   71% 73% 78% 80% 67% 74% 87% 86% 70% 71% 59%
Avg Max Increase   6.31% 5.55% 12.02% 10.48% 9.08% 7.64% 10.73% 11.42% 6.71% 4.43% 6.17%
Max Increase   26.63% 13.22% 41.74% 36.12% 22.65% 17.89% 102.90% 60.45% 15.35% 7.67% 14.47%
Avg Days To Max Increase   13 16 16 17 14 13 16 17 16 16 19
Avg Max Decline   -1.08% -1.02% -1.85% -0.66% -1.67% -1.51% -2.20% -1.57% -2.08% -1.42% -0.88%
Max Decline   -4.91% -4.21% -4.29% -3.49% -6.30% -6.01% -9.36% -9.23% -7.12% -4.74% -1.85%
Avg Days to Max Decline   6 10 6 3 8 3 8 6 6 5 4
2020 Contract Condition   Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes   Yes Yes   Yes
Action   Yes Yes Yes Yes   No   Yes Yes   Yes
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   24 30 22 20 18 26 22 23 22 24 28
Penetrated Low   18 18 16 13 12 21 17 17 18 22 20
Scenario Percentage   75% 60% 73% 65% 67% 81% 77% 74% 82% 92% 71%
Avg Max Decline   6.92% 5.53% 5.39% 7.99% 4.90% 5.86% 6.53% 7.13% 5.25% 6.65% 2.81%
Max Decline   19.63% 21.13% 19.58% 20.91% 8.36% 14.95% 24.92% 21.29% 20.24% 30.36% 9.56%
Avg Days To Max Decline   16 15 16 20 17 13 15 16 14 13 12
Avg Max Increase   -1.56% -1.14% -0.79% -1.62% -1.96% -2.14% -1.45% -0.93% -2.25% -1.71% -0.94%
Max Increase   -4.67% -5.30% -5.00% -11.21% -6.73% -7.69% -5.91% -6.30% -12.86% -8.78% -3.99%
Avg Days to Max Increase   6 8 6 12 13 10 8 7 8 9 4
2020 Contract Condition           Yes   Yes     Yes  
Action           Yes   No     Yes  
High 1343.6 1333.3 1458.6 1477.1 1575.1 1576.0 1537.2 1530.5 1534.5 1619.6 1691.7 1704.3
Low 1303.0 1301.6 1335.1 1409.2 1424.0 1483.8 1478.0 1458.5 1465.8 1526.0 1551.1 1450.9
Close/Last 1315.2 1333.0 1434.0 1449.0 1541.0 1485.1 1526.9 1478.1 1529.3 1587.9 1566.7 1583.4

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