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ScenarioSM Study for April Gold(CMX) as of Jun 08, 2020 | ||||||||||||
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Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
Tested Month | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar |
Tested Years | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | |
Closed Higher | 21 | 15 | 23 | 25 | 27 | 19 | 23 | 22 | 23 | 21 | 17 | |
Exceeded High | 15 | 11 | 18 | 20 | 18 | 14 | 20 | 19 | 16 | 15 | 10 | |
Scenario Percentage | 71% | 73% | 78% | 80% | 67% | 74% | 87% | 86% | 70% | 71% | 59% | |
Avg Max Increase | 6.31% | 5.55% | 12.02% | 10.48% | 9.08% | 7.64% | 10.73% | 11.42% | 6.71% | 4.43% | 6.17% | |
Max Increase | 26.63% | 13.22% | 41.74% | 36.12% | 22.65% | 17.89% | 102.90% | 60.45% | 15.35% | 7.67% | 14.47% | |
Avg Days To Max Increase | 13 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 14 | 13 | 16 | 17 | 16 | 16 | 19 | |
Avg Max Decline | -1.08% | -1.02% | -1.85% | -0.66% | -1.67% | -1.51% | -2.20% | -1.57% | -2.08% | -1.42% | -0.88% | |
Max Decline | -4.91% | -4.21% | -4.29% | -3.49% | -6.30% | -6.01% | -9.36% | -9.23% | -7.12% | -4.74% | -1.85% | |
Avg Days to Max Decline | 6 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | |
2020 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||||
Action | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | Yes | Yes | Yes |
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.