MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for April Gold(CMX) as of Oct 20, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		44	44	44	44	44	44	44	44	45	45	45
Closed Higher		20	14	22	24	27	18	23	21	22	22	16
Exceeded High		14	10	17	19	18	14	20	18	15	14	9
Scenario Percentage		70%	71%	77%	79%	67%	78%	87%	86%	68%	64%	56%
Avg Max Increase		5.99%	5.12%	12.21%	10.91%	9.08%	7.64%	10.73%	11.46%	6.67%	4.37%	4.96%
Max Increase		26.63%	13.22%	41.74%	36.12%	22.65%	17.89%	102.90%	60.45%	15.35%	7.67%	12.44%
Avg Days To Max Increase		13	15	17	18	14	13	16	16	17	14	19
Avg Max Decline		-1.17%	-0.95%	-1.86%	-0.70%	-1.67%	-1.51%	-2.20%	-1.65%	-2.07%	-1.31%	-0.88%
Max Decline		-4.91%	-4.21%	-4.29%	-3.49%	-6.30%	-6.01%	-9.36%	-9.23%	-7.12%	-4.74%	-1.85%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	11	7	3	8	3	8	6	6	5	5
2019 Contract Condition							Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action							Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		44	44	44	44	44	44	44	44	45	45	45
Closed Lower		24	30	22	20	17	26	21	23	23	23	29
Penetrated Low		18	18	16	13	11	21	17	17	18	21	20
Scenario Percentage		75%	60%	73%	65%	65%	81%	81%	74%	78%	91%	69%
Avg Max Decline		6.92%	5.53%	5.39%	7.99%	5.19%	5.86%	6.53%	7.13%	5.25%	6.61%	3.15%
Max Decline		19.63%	21.13%	19.58%	20.91%	8.36%	14.95%	24.92%	21.29%	20.24%	30.36%	9.56%
Avg Days To Max Decline		16	15	16	20	17	13	15	16	14	12	11
Avg Max Increase		-1.56%	-1.14%	-0.79%	-1.62%	-1.82%	-2.14%	-1.45%	-0.93%	-2.25%	-1.37%	-0.75%
Max Increase		-4.67%	-5.30%	-5.00%	-11.21%	-6.73%	-7.69%	-5.91%	-6.30%	-12.86%	-5.45%	-3.63%
Avg Days to Max Increase		6	8	6	12	14	10	8	7	8	9	4
2019 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes					Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes	No	No					Yes	Yes
High	1399.1	1356.9	1337.8	1289.5	1243.7	1229.0	1257.3	1251.0	1292.6	1331.1	1349.8	1324.5
Low	1346.9	1314.5	1271.7	1233.1	1182.7	1195.7	1199.2	1209.3	1233.0	1281.5	1304.7	1280.8
Close/Last	1350.9	1329.7	1278.3	1244.9	1217.7	1207.4	1226.8	1231.8	1287.7	1325.2	1316.1	1293.0