MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for April Gold(CMX) as of Jan 01, 2013
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	38	38	38
Closed Higher		18	11	18	19	25	16	20	18	16	19	13
Exceeded High		13	7	14	16	17	13	17	15	11	11	8
Scenario Percentage		72%	64%	78%	84%	68%	81%	85%	83%	69%	58%	62%
Avg Max Increase		6.32%	5.71%	12.94%	12.05%	9.54%	7.82%	11.08%	12.45%	6.01%	4.27%	5.18%
Max Increase		26.63%	13.22%	41.74%	36.12%	22.65%	17.89%	102.90%	60.45%	11.41%	7.67%	12.44%
Avg Days To Max Increase		13	16	17	19	15	11	15	15	16	14	20
Avg Max Decline		-1.19%	-0.92%	-1.85%	-0.65%	-1.74%	-1.52%	-2.25%	-1.83%	-2.59%	-1.30%	-0.96%
Max Decline		-4.91%	-4.21%	-4.29%	-3.49%	-6.30%	-6.01%	-9.36%	-9.23%	-7.12%	-3.05%	-1.85%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	13	7	3	8	2	8	6	7	5	5
2012 Contract Condition				Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes
Action				Yes	Yes		Yes	No		Yes

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	38	38	38
Closed Lower		19	26	19	18	12	21	17	19	22	19	25
Penetrated Low		16	15	14	12	7	16	13	16	17	17	18
Scenario Percentage		84%	58%	74%	67%	58%	76%	76%	84%	77%	89%	72%
Avg Max Decline		6.42%	5.40%	5.37%	8.24%	5.05%	5.57%	7.27%	7.11%	5.17%	6.58%	3.34%
Max Decline		19.63%	21.13%	19.58%	20.91%	8.36%	14.95%	24.92%	21.29%	20.24%	30.36%	9.56%
Avg Days To Max Decline		15	14	15	21	18	12	15	15	14	12	10
Avg Max Increase		-1.62%	-1.31%	-0.71%	-1.48%	-1.09%	-2.21%	-1.58%	-0.91%	-2.29%	-1.45%	-0.57%
Max Increase		-4.67%	-5.30%	-5.00%	-11.21%	-2.41%	-7.69%	-5.91%	-6.30%	-12.86%	-5.45%	-2.49%
Avg Days to Max Increase		6	8	7	13	13	9	9	6	9	8	3
2012 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes			Yes			Yes		Yes	Yes
Action		No	Yes			No			No		Yes	Yes
High	1565.0	1570.4	1559.4	1635.6	1918.1	1925.0	1756.4	1808.0	1769.7	1750.6	1792.7	1727.3
Low	1426.8	1478.0	1498.0	1487.8	1615.7	1553.4	1600.9	1677.1	1526.2	1572.3	1688.4	1627.5
Close/Last	1563.0	1542.0	1507.9	1634.0	1834.8	1625.6	1728.9	1753.1	1569.4	1740.4	1711.3	1669.3