MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for April Gold(CMX) as of Dec 30, 2011
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		36	36	36	36	36	36	36	36	37	37	37
Closed Higher		18	11	17	18	25	15	19	18	15	18	13
Exceeded High		13	7	13	15	17	12	17	15	10	12	8
Scenario Percentage		72%	64%	76%	83%	68%	80%	89%	83%	67%	67%	62%
Avg Max Increase		6.32%	5.71%	12.56%	12.52%	9.54%	8.09%	11.08%	12.45%	6.32%	4.35%	5.55%
Max Increase		26.63%	13.22%	41.74%	36.12%	22.65%	17.89%	102.90%	60.45%	11.41%	7.67%	12.44%
Avg Days To Max Increase		13	16	17	20	15	11	15	15	15	15	20
Avg Max Decline		-1.19%	-0.92%	-1.90%	-0.65%	-1.74%	-1.44%	-2.25%	-1.83%	-2.65%	-1.44%	-0.96%
Max Decline		-4.91%	-4.21%	-4.29%	-3.49%	-6.30%	-6.01%	-9.36%	-9.23%	-7.12%	-3.05%	-1.85%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	13	8	3	8	2	8	6	7	5	5
2011 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	No		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No		Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		36	36	36	36	36	36	36	36	37	37	37
Closed Lower		18	25	19	18	11	21	17	18	22	19	24
Penetrated Low		16	14	14	12	7	16	13	16	17	17	18
Scenario Percentage		89%	56%	74%	67%	64%	76%	76%	89%	77%	89%	75%
Avg Max Decline		6.42%	5.69%	5.37%	8.24%	5.05%	5.57%	7.27%	7.11%	5.17%	6.58%	3.24%
Max Decline		19.63%	21.13%	19.58%	20.91%	8.36%	14.95%	24.92%	21.29%	20.24%	30.36%	9.56%
Avg Days To Max Decline		15	15	15	21	18	12	15	15	14	12	11
Avg Max Increase		-1.62%	-1.49%	-0.71%	-1.48%	-1.09%	-2.21%	-1.58%	-0.91%	-2.29%	-1.45%	-0.74%
Max Increase		-4.67%	-5.30%	-5.00%	-11.21%	-2.41%	-7.69%	-5.91%	-6.30%	-12.86%	-5.45%	-3.99%
Avg Days to Max Increase		6	9	7	13	13	9	9	6	9	8	3
2011 Contract Condition				Yes						Yes
Action				No						No
High	1188.5	1254.9	1274.6	1229.8	1253.5	1318.6	1390.9	1428.0	1434.1	1426.3	1418.8	1448.6
Low	1131.3	1165.6	1210.5	1163.2	1187.5	1242.6	1317.0	1330.0	1364.7	1309.1	1325.3	1380.7
Close/Last	1188.5	1223.6	1254.0	1186.8	1253.1	1312.9	1361.2	1388.3	1423.6	1334.5	1409.9	1438.9