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ScenarioSM Study for April Gold(CMX) as of Jan 01, 2009 | ||||||||||||
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Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
Tested Month | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar |
Tested Years | 33 | 33 | 33 | 33 | 33 | 33 | 33 | 33 | 34 | 34 | 34 | |
Closed Higher | 15 | 9 | 16 | 17 | 22 | 13 | 16 | 16 | 14 | 15 | 12 | |
Exceeded High | 10 | 6 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 10 | 14 | 14 | 9 | 10 | 7 | |
Scenario Percentage | 67% | 67% | 75% | 82% | 64% | 77% | 88% | 88% | 64% | 67% | 58% | |
Avg Max Increase | 6.66% | 5.65% | 13.01% | 12.63% | 9.26% | 7.38% | 11.97% | 12.35% | 6.07% | 4.00% | 5.84% | |
Max Increase | 26.63% | 13.22% | 41.74% | 36.12% | 22.65% | 14.71% | 102.90% | 60.45% | 11.41% | 6.98% | 14.47% | |
Avg Days To Max Increase | 14 | 16 | 18 | 21 | 15 | 13 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 20 | |
Avg Max Decline | -1.12% | -0.88% | -1.86% | -0.63% | -1.53% | -1.53% | -2.02% | -1.30% | -2.49% | -1.22% | -0.84% | |
Max Decline | -4.91% | -4.21% | -4.29% | -3.49% | -4.67% | -6.01% | -7.89% | -6.14% | -7.12% | -2.96% | -1.85% | |
Avg Days to Max Decline | 8 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 3 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 5 | |
2008 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |||||
Action | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
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