MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for April Gold(CMX) as of Jan 01, 2008
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	33	33	33
Closed Higher	15	9	15	16	21	12	16	15	13	14	12
Exceeded High	10	6	11	13	13	9	14	13	8	8	7
Scenario Percentage	67%	67%	73%	81%	62%	75%	88%	87%	62%	57%	58%
Avg Max Increase	6.66%	5.65%	13.24%	12.30%	8.97%	7.47%	11.97%	12.11%	5.40%	3.50%	5.13%
Max Increase	26.63%	13.22%	41.74%	36.12%	22.65%	14.71%	102.90%	60.45%	9.38%	6.98%	12.44%
Avg Days To Max Increase	14	16	17	20	15	13	15	14	14	13	19
Avg Max Decline	-1.12%	-0.88%	-1.70%	-0.67%	-1.41%	-1.59%	-2.02%	-1.40%	-2.27%	-1.03%	-0.84%
Max Decline	-4.91%	-4.21%	-4.29%	-3.49%	-4.67%	-6.01%	-7.89%	-6.14%	-7.12%	-1.78%	-1.85%
Avg Days to Max Decline	8	14	6	3	10	3	10	5	8	1	5
2007 Contract Condition			Yes			Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action			No			Yes	Yes		Yes	Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	33	33	33
Closed Lower	17	23	17	16	11	20	16	17	20	19	21
Penetrated Low	15	12	13	11	7	16	13	15	16	17	17
Scenario Percentage	88%	52%	76%	69%	64%	80%	81%	88%	80%	89%	81%
Avg Max Decline	6.63%	6.33%	4.28%	7.33%	5.05%	5.57%	7.27%	7.27%	5.27%	6.58%	13.98%
Max Decline	19.63%	21.13%	13.17%	20.91%	8.36%	14.95%	24.92%	21.29%	20.24%	30.36%	64.31%
Avg Days To Max Decline	14	16	15	21	18	12	15	16	14	12	12
Avg Max Increase	-1.62%	-1.12%	-0.81%	-0.59%	-1.09%	-2.21%	-1.58%	-0.55%	-2.19%	-1.45%	-1.71%
Max Increase	-4.67%	-3.59%	-5.00%	-5.35%	-2.41%	-7.69%	-5.91%	-2.10%	-12.86%	-5.45%	-12.06%
Avg Days to Max Increase	6	8	7	10	13	9	9	6	9	8	-35
2007 Contract Condition	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes			Yes			Yes
Action	Yes	No		Yes	Yes			Yes			Yes
High	765.0	674.4	695.0	677.1	659.4	623.5	660.5	661.0	661.2	692.5	680.2
Low	670.1	580.0	634.7	631.3	588.0	575.0	620.0	621.0	607.2	648.0	634.5
Close/Last	674.8	641.3	659.5	646.5	615.8	618.7	659.2	644.3	657.9	672.5	663.0