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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for April Gold(CMX) as of Jan 01, 2008
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Tested Years 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 33 33 33
Closed Higher 15 9 15 16 21 12 16 15 13 14 12
Exceeded High 10 6 11 13 13 9 14 13 8 8 7
Scenario Percentage 67% 67% 73% 81% 62% 75% 88% 87% 62% 57% 58%
Avg Max Increase 6.66% 5.65% 13.24% 12.30% 8.97% 7.47% 11.97% 12.11% 5.40% 3.50% 5.13%
Max Increase 26.63% 13.22% 41.74% 36.12% 22.65% 14.71% 102.90% 60.45% 9.38% 6.98% 12.44%
Avg Days To Max Increase 14 16 17 20 15 13 15 14 14 13 19
Avg Max Decline -1.12% -0.88% -1.70% -0.67% -1.41% -1.59% -2.02% -1.40% -2.27% -1.03% -0.84%
Max Decline -4.91% -4.21% -4.29% -3.49% -4.67% -6.01% -7.89% -6.14% -7.12% -1.78% -1.85%
Avg Days to Max Decline 8 14 6 3 10 3 10 5 8 1 5
2007 Contract Condition     Yes     Yes Yes   Yes Yes  
Action     No     Yes Yes   Yes Not Yet  
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Tested Years 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 33 33 33
Closed Lower 17 23 17 16 11 20 16 17 20 19 21
Penetrated Low 15 12 13 11 7 16 13 15 16 17 17
Scenario Percentage 88% 52% 76% 69% 64% 80% 81% 88% 80% 89% 81%
Avg Max Decline 6.63% 6.33% 4.28% 7.33% 5.05% 5.57% 7.27% 7.27% 5.27% 6.58% 13.98%
Max Decline 19.63% 21.13% 13.17% 20.91% 8.36% 14.95% 24.92% 21.29% 20.24% 30.36% 64.31%
Avg Days To Max Decline 14 16 15 21 18 12 15 16 14 12 12
Avg Max Increase -1.62% -1.12% -0.81% -0.59% -1.09% -2.21% -1.58% -0.55% -2.19% -1.45% -1.71%
Max Increase -4.67% -3.59% -5.00% -5.35% -2.41% -7.69% -5.91% -2.10% -12.86% -5.45% -12.06%
Avg Days to Max Increase 6 8 7 10 13 9 9 6 9 8 -35
2007 Contract Condition Yes Yes   Yes Yes     Yes     Yes
Action Yes No   Yes Yes     Yes     Yes
High 765.0 674.4 695.0 677.1 659.4 623.5 660.5 661.0 661.2 692.5 680.2
Low 670.1 580.0 634.7 631.3 588.0 575.0 620.0 621.0 607.2 648.0 634.5
Close/Last 674.8 641.3 659.5 646.5 615.8 618.7 659.2 644.3 657.9 672.5 663.0

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