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ScenarioSM Study for February Gold(CMX) as of Aug 18, 2023 | ||||||||||||
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Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
Tested Month | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan |
Tested Years | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | |
Closed Higher | 17 | 21 | 22 | 16 | 22 | 25 | 24 | 18 | 23 | 22 | 23 | |
Exceeded High | 12 | 15 | 17 | 12 | 18 | 20 | 17 | 13 | 20 | 20 | 17 | |
Scenario Percentage | 71% | 71% | 77% | 75% | 82% | 80% | 71% | 72% | 87% | 91% | 74% | |
Avg Max Increase | 8.16% | 6.23% | 6.56% | 6.42% | 12.04% | 9.97% | 8.03% | 6.94% | 11.15% | 10.74% | 4.87% | |
Max Increase | 24.03% | 13.38% | 26.39% | 14.87% | 42.74% | 36.10% | 18.44% | 17.86% | 102.79% | 61.37% | 12.93% | |
Avg Days To Max Increase | 14 | 16 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 11 | 17 | 14 | 14 | |
Avg Max Decline | -0.85% | -1.56% | -1.34% | -1.19% | -1.81% | -0.75% | -1.53% | -1.47% | -1.90% | -1.26% | -1.58% | |
Max Decline | -1.91% | -6.79% | -4.28% | -3.92% | -4.04% | -3.70% | -6.39% | -3.39% | -9.50% | -9.36% | -4.33% | |
Avg Days to Max Decline | 5 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 3 | |
2023 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||||||||
Action | No | Yes | Yes | Yes |
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