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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for February Gold(CMX) as of Aug 18, 2023
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   17 21 22 16 22 25 24 18 23 22 23
Exceeded High   12 15 17 12 18 20 17 13 20 20 17
Scenario Percentage   71% 71% 77% 75% 82% 80% 71% 72% 87% 91% 74%
Avg Max Increase   8.16% 6.23% 6.56% 6.42% 12.04% 9.97% 8.03% 6.94% 11.15% 10.74% 4.87%
Max Increase   24.03% 13.38% 26.39% 14.87% 42.74% 36.10% 18.44% 17.86% 102.79% 61.37% 12.93%
Avg Days To Max Increase   14 16 14 15 15 15 14 11 17 14 14
Avg Max Decline   -0.85% -1.56% -1.34% -1.19% -1.81% -0.75% -1.53% -1.47% -1.90% -1.26% -1.58%
Max Decline   -1.91% -6.79% -4.28% -3.92% -4.04% -3.70% -6.39% -3.39% -9.50% -9.36% -4.33%
Avg Days to Max Decline   5 10 6 9 6 4 7 3 6 7 3
2023 Contract Condition   Yes               Yes Yes Yes
Action   No               Yes Yes Yes
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   28 24 23 29 23 20 21 27 22 23 22
Penetrated Low   22 20 17 18 18 14 15 22 17 17 14
Scenario Percentage   79% 83% 74% 62% 78% 70% 71% 81% 77% 74% 64%
Avg Max Decline   4.67% 5.26% 6.59% 4.79% 5.45% 6.93% 5.46% 5.73% 5.91% 6.42% 3.77%
Max Decline   11.74% 19.58% 19.71% 11.58% 19.81% 18.06% 12.60% 15.38% 24.75% 19.93% 6.66%
Avg Days To Max Decline   17 19 16 14 17 19 17 14 14 12 13
Avg Max Increase   -1.71% -1.76% -1.55% -1.24% -1.15% -2.11% -2.55% -2.21% -1.22% -0.82% -0.99%
Max Increase   -9.30% -5.40% -4.68% -5.18% -5.65% -11.82% -6.82% -7.53% -5.73% -6.09% -3.87%
Avg Days to Max Increase   8 10 7 7 8 12 14 10 7 6 3
2023 Contract Condition     Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes      
Action     Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes      
High 1977.8 2090.1 2030.0 1924.2 1910.6 1844.8 1836.7 1758.9 1751.6 1806.0 1841.9 1949.8
Low 1812.0 1920.7 1905.3 1818.0 1836.6 1708.3 1733.6 1636.0 1635.0 1632.3 1778.1 1829.9
Close/Last 1920.7 1980.5 1943.7 1874.6 1839.4 1793.5 1738.9 1684.9 1654.9 1759.9 1826.2 1929.5

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