MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for February Gold(CMX) as of May 10, 2021
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		17	20	21	16	22	25	26	19	23	22	23
Exceeded High		12	14	16	12	19	20	19	14	19	20	17
Scenario Percentage		71%	70%	76%	75%	86%	80%	73%	74%	83%	91%	74%
Avg Max Increase		8.16%	6.08%	6.93%	6.42%	11.77%	10.56%	8.82%	7.40%	11.17%	10.79%	5.01%
Max Increase		24.03%	13.38%	26.39%	14.87%	42.74%	36.10%	21.89%	17.86%	102.79%	61.37%	12.93%
Avg Days To Max Increase		14	17	14	15	16	16	14	11	16	15	15
Avg Max Decline		-0.85%	-1.71%	-1.39%	-1.19%	-1.83%	-0.74%	-1.55%	-1.38%	-2.05%	-1.49%	-1.66%
Max Decline		-1.91%	-6.79%	-4.28%	-3.92%	-4.04%	-3.70%	-6.39%	-3.39%	-9.50%	-9.36%	-4.33%
Avg Days to Max Decline		5	11	7	9	6	4	7	3	7	6	4
2021 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes					Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes					Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		28	24	24	29	23	20	19	26	22	23	22
Penetrated Low		23	20	18	17	18	13	14	21	16	17	14
Scenario Percentage		82%	83%	75%	59%	78%	65%	74%	81%	73%	74%	64%
Avg Max Decline		4.64%	5.36%	6.97%	5.56%	5.68%	7.00%	5.63%	5.93%	6.20%	6.42%	3.77%
Max Decline		11.74%	19.58%	19.71%	21.05%	19.81%	18.06%	12.60%	15.38%	24.75%	19.93%	6.66%
Avg Days To Max Decline		18	19	16	14	16	19	18	15	14	12	13
Avg Max Increase		-1.66%	-1.86%	-1.68%	-1.14%	-1.04%	-2.18%	-2.45%	-2.22%	-1.22%	-0.82%	-0.99%
Max Increase		-9.30%	-5.40%	-4.94%	-5.18%	-5.65%	-11.82%	-6.82%	-7.53%	-5.73%	-6.09%	-3.87%
Avg Days to Max Increase		9	9	6	6	8	12	14	11	8	6	3
2021 Contract Condition							Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action							Yes	Yes	Yes	No		Yes
High	1714.0	1713.8	1789.0	1788.4	1830.5	2013.7	2099.2	2008.2	1945.6	1973.3	1912.0	1962.5
Low	1578.5	1461.7	1587.6	1689.2	1698.4	1795.6	1884.0	1858.1	1866.7	1767.2	1778.4	1800.8
Close/Last	1587.0	1598.6	1706.3	1770.3	1827.5	1995.6	1986.5	1902.6	1887.2	1780.9	1895.1	1847.3