MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for February Gold(CMX) as of Jan 01, 2015
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan
Tested Years		39	39	39	39	39	39	39	39	39	39	40
Closed Higher		14	16	18	12	19	21	25	16	20	18	17
Exceeded High		9	11	13	8	16	17	19	13	16	15	13
Scenario Percentage		64%	69%	72%	67%	84%	81%	76%	81%	80%	83%	76%
Avg Max Increase		8.58%	6.35%	6.51%	5.78%	12.66%	11.80%	8.82%	7.56%	11.62%	12.31%	4.93%
Max Increase		24.03%	13.38%	26.39%	12.82%	42.74%	36.10%	21.89%	17.86%	102.79%	61.37%	11.74%
Avg Days To Max Increase		16	15	13	17	18	18	14	10	15	14	14
Avg Max Decline		-0.86%	-1.10%	-1.34%	-1.35%	-1.95%	-0.68%	-1.55%	-1.37%	-2.08%	-1.85%	-1.82%
Max Decline		-1.91%	-5.03%	-4.28%	-3.92%	-4.04%	-3.70%	-6.39%	-3.39%	-9.50%	-9.36%	-4.33%
Avg Days to Max Decline		6	8	7	14	7	3	7	2	7	6	3
2014 Contract Condition		Yes				Yes	Yes					Yes
Action		No				Yes	No					Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan
Tested Years		39	39	39	39	39	39	39	39	39	39	40
Closed Lower		25	22	21	27	20	18	14	23	19	21	23
Penetrated Low		22	18	16	15	16	12	9	18	15	17	13
Scenario Percentage		88%	82%	76%	56%	80%	67%	64%	78%	79%	81%	57%
Avg Max Decline		5.04%	5.65%	7.37%	5.43%	5.68%	8.42%	6.20%	5.85%	6.95%	6.76%	4.17%
Max Decline		11.74%	19.58%	19.71%	21.05%	19.81%	21.59%	12.60%	15.38%	24.75%	19.93%	7.53%
Avg Days To Max Decline		18	19	16	15	16	20	19	14	15	13	15
Avg Max Increase		-1.53%	-2.14%	-1.85%	-1.44%	-0.98%	-1.64%	-1.84%	-2.16%	-1.60%	-0.82%	-0.96%
Max Increase		-9.30%	-5.98%	-4.94%	-5.18%	-5.65%	-11.82%	-5.84%	-7.53%	-6.56%	-6.09%	-3.87%
Avg Days to Max Increase		9	10	6	8	8	13	13	10	9	6	4
2014 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	Yes	No			Yes	Yes	Yes	Not Yet
High	1690.8	1622.3	1607.2	1482.6	1423.0	1346.5	1433.7	1416.7	1362.3	1327.4	1267.5	1279.8
Low	1569.5	1573.7	1334.3	1345.9	1187.9	1214.4	1274.0	1285.0	1254.0	1226.4	1181.4	1202.5
Close/Last	1585.4	1601.9	1477.2	1396.6	1227.0	1314.1	1396.8	1327.7	1324.5	1250.4	1202.3	1240.1