MRCI Online
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| ScenarioSM Study for November Feeder Cattle(CME) as of Sep 30, 2024 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
| Tested Month | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct |
| Tested Years | 30 | 40 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | |
| Closed Higher | 20 | 25 | 26 | 19 | 23 | 26 | 27 | 31 | 22 | 24 | 20 | |
| Exceeded High | 20 | 22 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 23 | 27 | 26 | 18 | 20 | 8 | |
| Scenario Percentage | 100% | 88% | 69% | 95% | 78% | 88% | 100% | 84% | 82% | 83% | 40% | |
| Avg Max Increase | 4.28% | 3.92% | 6.58% | 5.08% | 5.17% | 5.36% | 5.43% | 4.30% | 4.19% | 3.34% | 2.07% | |
| Max Increase | 12.41% | 9.91% | 23.60% | 20.96% | 15.86% | 13.13% | 10.86% | 10.24% | 16.13% | 10.84% | 4.51% | |
| Avg Days To Max Increase | 18 | 16 | 18 | 16 | 20 | 20 | 19 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 7 | |
| Avg Max Decline | -0.78% | -0.77% | -1.05% | -0.99% | -1.48% | -1.97% | -1.31% | -1.65% | -1.37% | -1.01% | -0.75% | |
| Max Decline | -3.05% | -3.23% | -5.05% | -5.29% | -4.77% | -6.17% | -3.99% | -6.29% | -7.19% | -2.90% | -1.65% | |
| Avg Days to Max Decline | 8 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2024 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |||||||
| Action | Yes | Yes | No | Yes | Not Yet | |||||||
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
