MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for November Feeder Cattle(CME) as of Jan 01, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct
Tested Years		26	37	43	44	44	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		16	24	25	20	26	26	25	28	23	25	18
Exceeded High		16	21	17	19	19	21	24	24	19	21	7
Scenario Percentage		100%	88%	68%	95%	73%	81%	96%	86%	83%	84%	39%
Avg Max Increase		5.08%	4.36%	7.22%	6.40%	6.10%	5.49%	5.39%	4.64%	4.57%	3.54%	1.91%
Max Increase		14.30%	16.22%	23.60%	23.93%	16.07%	13.13%	10.86%	10.23%	16.13%	10.84%	4.51%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	16	19	16	20	19	17	16	10	10	7
Avg Max Decline		-0.53%	-0.84%	-1.09%	-1.01%	-1.33%	-1.64%	-1.30%	-1.95%	-1.38%	-1.40%	-0.79%
Max Decline		-3.05%	-3.23%	-5.05%	-5.29%	-4.77%	-6.17%	-3.99%	-6.29%	-7.19%	-8.14%	-1.65%
Avg Days to Max Decline		9	6	7	6	12	9	10	9	7	5	2
2018 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action			Yes	No		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct
Tested Years		26	37	43	44	44	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		10	13	18	23	17	19	20	17	22	20	25
Penetrated Low		5	10	13	17	10	13	13	13	12	18	13
Scenario Percentage		50%	77%	72%	74%	59%	68%	65%	76%	55%	90%	52%
Avg Max Decline		4.99%	5.48%	7.71%	5.12%	4.57%	6.51%	6.62%	8.37%	6.94%	4.53%	2.83%
Max Decline		11.89%	16.98%	22.26%	11.39%	10.11%	12.57%	12.22%	25.87%	16.68%	12.76%	7.00%
Avg Days To Max Decline		11	16	18	16	18	17	16	14	11	12	8
Avg Max Increase		-1.05%	-1.09%	-1.05%	-1.26%	-1.26%	-1.37%	-1.64%	-2.70%	-1.15%	-1.83%	-0.65%
Max Increase		-1.89%	-5.12%	-5.50%	-6.67%	-6.89%	-5.06%	-4.87%	-8.96%	-3.73%	-7.18%	-2.00%
Avg Days to Max Increase		6	4	6	7	4	4	9	9	4	7	2
2018 Contract Condition		Yes			Yes					Yes		Yes
Action		No			Yes					No		Yes
High	149.580	147.650	151.250	154.700	152.985	148.650	148.385	150.330	155.400	153.580	159.400	159.735
Low	146.050	141.550	142.500	148.885	140.885	137.430	138.400	143.530	148.430	146.050	147.830	152.050
Close/Last	148.030	144.050	149.500	150.780	141.100	145.330	147.235	149.750	150.135	149.000	158.050	153.485