MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for November Feeder Cattle(CME) as of Jan 01, 2015
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct
Tested Years		22	34	40	41	42	43	43	43	43	43	43
Closed Higher		15	24	23	18	26	25	26	28	23	24	16
Exceeded High		15	20	16	17	19	21	25	24	20	20	5
Scenario Percentage		100%	83%	70%	94%	73%	84%	96%	86%	87%	83%	31%
Avg Max Increase		5.25%	4.40%	6.20%	5.75%	6.56%	6.45%	6.53%	4.91%	4.98%	3.85%	1.88%
Max Increase		14.30%	16.22%	13.46%	23.93%	16.07%	18.16%	33.08%	12.84%	16.13%	10.84%	4.36%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	16	18	16	20	20	17	15	10	11	10
Avg Max Decline		-0.37%	-0.86%	-1.05%	-0.76%	-1.13%	-1.58%	-1.22%	-1.81%	-1.34%	-1.35%	-0.91%
Max Decline		-3.05%	-3.23%	-5.05%	-1.95%	-4.15%	-6.17%	-3.99%	-6.29%	-7.19%	-8.14%	-1.65%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	6	7	6	11	9	10	7	7	4	3
2014 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct
Tested Years		22	34	40	41	42	43	43	43	43	43	43
Closed Lower		7	10	17	22	15	18	17	15	20	19	25
Penetrated Low		4	7	13	16	9	12	12	11	12	16	13
Scenario Percentage		57%	70%	76%	73%	60%	67%	71%	73%	60%	84%	52%
Avg Max Decline		3.27%	5.83%	7.01%	5.27%	4.56%	6.47%	6.37%	7.27%	6.97%	4.71%	3.09%
Max Decline		5.69%	16.98%	22.26%	11.39%	10.11%	12.57%	12.22%	25.87%	16.68%	12.76%	7.00%
Avg Days To Max Decline		8	18	16	17	17	17	16	12	13	13	9
Avg Max Increase		-0.84%	-1.31%	-0.62%	-1.25%	-0.64%	-1.07%	-1.63%	-2.20%	-1.08%	-1.73%	-0.66%
Max Increase		-1.10%	-5.12%	-1.94%	-6.67%	-1.69%	-4.01%	-4.87%	-8.96%	-3.73%	-7.18%	-2.00%
Avg Days to Max Increase		7	4	5	8	3	4	10	9	4	7	2
2014 Contract Condition										Yes		Yes
Action										No		Not Yet
High	166.000	168.900	170.000	174.350	179.580	187.750	197.850	217.530	223.530	220.000	235.950	245.750
Low	164.750	165.400	167.080	167.850	172.235	177.050	187.600	196.950	208.030	206.150	215.700	231.750
Close/Last	165.400	168.900	169.350	173.900	178.000	187.750	197.580	214.030	219.980	215.385	235.050	234.150