MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for November Feeder Cattle(CME) as of Jan 01, 2013
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct
Tested Years		20	32	38	39	40	41	41	41	41	41	41
Closed Higher		13	23	22	17	25	24	24	26	23	22	16
Exceeded High		13	19	15	16	18	20	23	22	20	18	5
Scenario Percentage		100%	83%	68%	94%	72%	83%	96%	85%	87%	82%	31%
Avg Max Increase		5.76%	4.31%	6.08%	5.41%	6.05%	6.12%	6.71%	4.87%	4.98%	3.54%	1.51%
Max Increase		14.30%	16.22%	13.46%	23.93%	16.07%	18.16%	33.08%	12.84%	16.13%	10.84%	2.72%
Avg Days To Max Increase		15	15	17	15	19	19	16	14	10	11	9
Avg Max Decline		-0.11%	-0.86%	-1.05%	-0.78%	-1.18%	-1.64%	-1.22%	-1.59%	-1.34%	-1.46%	-0.91%
Max Decline		-0.63%	-3.23%	-5.05%	-1.95%	-4.15%	-6.17%	-3.99%	-5.19%	-7.19%	-8.14%	-1.65%
Avg Days to Max Decline		5	6	8	6	12	10	10	6	7	5	3
2012 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes			Yes		Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes			Yes		Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct
Tested Years		20	32	38	39	40	41	41	41	41	41	41
Closed Lower		7	9	16	21	14	17	17	15	18	19	23
Penetrated Low		4	6	12	15	8	12	12	11	12	16	12
Scenario Percentage		57%	67%	75%	71%	57%	71%	71%	73%	67%	84%	52%
Avg Max Decline		3.27%	5.34%	7.07%	5.26%	4.68%	6.47%	6.37%	7.27%	6.97%	4.71%	2.97%
Max Decline		5.69%	16.98%	22.26%	11.39%	10.11%	12.57%	12.22%	25.87%	16.68%	12.76%	7.00%
Avg Days To Max Decline		8	18	16	17	17	17	16	12	13	13	8
Avg Max Increase		-0.84%	-1.50%	-0.66%	-1.24%	-0.61%	-1.07%	-1.63%	-2.20%	-1.08%	-1.73%	-0.69%
Max Increase		-1.10%	-5.12%	-1.94%	-6.67%	-1.69%	-4.01%	-4.87%	-8.96%	-3.73%	-7.18%	-2.00%
Avg Days to Max Increase		7	4	5	8	3	4	10	9	4	7	2
2012 Contract Condition					Yes			Yes	Yes		Yes
Action					Yes			Yes	No		Yes
High	153.250	153.385	159.600	163.000	163.650	160.500	164.235	164.280	156.250	148.200	149.680	149.750
Low	151.500	149.000	152.900	158.735	154.350	151.500	157.200	150.800	139.550	141.850	144.325	143.680
Close/Last	152.250	152.900	159.600	162.650	154.750	157.500	160.385	157.050	144.350	147.800	144.350	146.300