MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for November Feeder Cattle(CME) as of Jan 01, 2007
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct
Tested Years	15	27	32	33	34	35	35	35	35	35	35
Closed Higher	9	19	16	14	20	21	21	21	21	21	15
Exceeded High	9	15	10	13	14	17	20	19	19	17	5
Scenario Percentage	100%	79%	62%	93%	70%	81%	95%	90%	90%	81%	33%
Avg Max Increase	5.66%	3.86%	6.04%	6.08%	6.59%	6.88%	6.91%	5.28%	5.17%	3.66%	1.57%
Max Increase	14.30%	16.22%	13.46%	23.93%	16.07%	18.16%	33.08%	12.84%	16.13%	10.84%	2.80%
Avg Days To Max Increase	14	15	18	16	19	20	16	15	10	11	10
Avg Max Decline	-0.21%	-0.91%	-1.14%	-0.84%	-1.03%	-1.18%	-1.35%	-1.55%	-1.27%	-1.43%	-0.91%
Max Decline	-0.59%	-3.23%	-5.05%	-1.95%	-2.81%	-4.10%	-3.99%	-5.19%	-7.19%	-8.14%	-1.65%
Avg Days to Max Decline	6	7	8	6	11	10	9	6	6	5	3
2006 Contract Condition						Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action						Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct
Tested Years	15	27	32	33	34	35	35	35	35	35	35
Closed Lower	6	8	16	18	13	14	14	14	14	14	18
Penetrated Low	3	5	12	14	7	11	10	11	9	11	12
Scenario Percentage	50%	62%	75%	78%	54%	79%	71%	79%	64%	79%	67%
Avg Max Decline	3.63%	6.22%	7.07%	5.48%	3.91%	6.72%	5.98%	7.27%	6.08%	4.27%	10.06%
Max Decline	5.69%	16.98%	22.26%	11.39%	8.27%	12.57%	12.22%	25.87%	16.68%	12.76%	44.65%
Avg Days To Max Decline	5	17	16	18	16	17	14	12	10	13	12
Avg Max Increase	-0.75%	-0.77%	-0.66%	-1.30%	-0.67%	-1.17%	-1.67%	-2.20%	-0.76%	-2.06%	-0.85%
Max Increase	-0.95%	-3.69%	-1.94%	-6.67%	-1.69%	-4.01%	-4.87%	-8.96%	-3.73%	-7.18%	-4.05%
Avg Days to Max Increase	6	3	5	9	4	4	8	9	4	9	3
2006 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes					Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes	No					Yes	Yes
High	110.900	111.750	109.550	107.475	103.050	106.975	115.000	114.000	117.900	119.250	112.100
Low	109.500	109.100	106.150	102.700	99.400	100.500	105.500	109.500	111.800	110.650	102.200
Close/Last	110.800	109.900	106.700	102.750	100.950	106.900	111.500	113.700	116.325	110.850	103.975