MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for October Feeder Cattle(CME) as of Jan 01, 2008
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep
Tested Years	7	29	32	35	36	36	36	36	36	36	36
Closed Higher	3	18	22	20	16	22	22	21	22	22	19
Exceeded High	3	18	19	13	14	16	18	20	19	20	13
Scenario Percentage	100%	100%	86%	65%	88%	73%	82%	95%	86%	91%	68%
Avg Max Increase	6.93%	5.10%	4.31%	6.18%	5.81%	6.17%	6.91%	7.28%	4.95%	5.16%	2.99%
Max Increase	10.29%	14.38%	15.47%	13.16%	24.60%	17.00%	17.69%	33.68%	13.80%	17.30%	10.87%
Avg Days To Max Increase	21	14	14	20	17	20	22	16	14	12	12
Avg Max Decline	-0.56%	-0.76%	-1.00%	-1.15%	-1.17%	-1.15%	-1.68%	-1.46%	-1.86%	-1.39%	-0.68%
Max Decline	-1.01%	-5.45%	-3.21%	-5.02%	-2.84%	-3.10%	-7.28%	-4.59%	-6.61%	-7.38%	-2.04%
Avg Days to Max Decline	9	7	8	7	7	11	11	8	6	3	3
2007 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep
Tested Years	7	29	32	35	36	36	36	36	36	36	36
Closed Lower	4	11	10	15	20	14	14	14	14	14	16
Penetrated Low	1	5	6	12	16	8	12	10	11	10	10
Scenario Percentage	25%	45%	60%	80%	80%	57%	86%	71%	79%	71%	62%
Avg Max Decline	9.34%	6.04%	8.73%	5.78%	6.99%	7.61%	6.63%	6.50%	6.97%	5.56%	9.70%
Max Decline	9.34%	8.12%	16.84%	14.96%	30.86%	31.86%	13.63%	12.55%	24.37%	16.33%	48.40%
Avg Days To Max Decline	31	23	23	18	18	10	16	14	13	11	17
Avg Max Increase	-0.68%	-1.19%	-0.95%	-0.66%	-1.69%	-0.82%	-1.21%	-1.71%	-3.00%	-0.98%	-1.55%
Max Increase	-0.68%	-2.26%	-4.16%	-1.74%	-6.89%	-2.02%	-4.47%	-4.73%	-7.79%	-4.23%	-4.09%
Avg Days to Max Increase	8	7	8	4	10	5	5	7	9	3	4
2007 Contract Condition	Yes		Yes				Yes			Yes	Yes
Action	No		No				Yes			Yes	Yes
High	103.200	102.950	102.300	105.500	110.000	111.700	112.850	112.000	118.975	119.350	119.650
Low	96.000	99.800	96.250	99.300	104.950	107.600	108.100	105.600	111.250	114.200	114.750
Close/Last	100.300	101.800	99.700	105.400	109.000	111.525	110.775	111.900	118.875	117.625	116.300