MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for September Feeder Cattle(CME) as of Jan 01, 2014
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		14	32	38	38	41	41	42	42	42	42	42
Closed Higher		6	18	24	26	24	18	26	23	25	26	23
Exceeded High		5	16	24	23	17	16	19	18	23	22	13
Scenario Percentage		83%	89%	100%	88%	71%	89%	73%	78%	92%	85%	57%
Avg Max Increase		4.87%	5.01%	4.92%	4.89%	6.28%	5.61%	6.02%	7.01%	5.69%	5.14%	4.48%
Max Increase		9.04%	11.41%	14.86%	16.98%	13.74%	23.29%	15.76%	15.98%	10.82%	13.26%	13.04%
Avg Days To Max Increase		11	19	15	15	17	16	18	22	16	13	15
Avg Max Decline		-0.73%	-0.91%	-0.65%	-1.09%	-1.22%	-0.91%	-1.04%	-1.94%	-1.28%	-1.62%	-0.64%
Max Decline		-2.20%	-3.04%	-6.06%	-3.61%	-4.67%	-2.50%	-3.12%	-6.69%	-4.86%	-6.34%	-1.79%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	10	7	7	5	7	9	10	8	6	3
2013 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes						Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	Yes						Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		14	32	38	38	41	41	42	42	42	42	42
Closed Lower		8	14	13	12	17	23	16	19	17	16	18
Penetrated Low		7	9	7	8	15	17	10	11	11	11	10
Scenario Percentage		88%	64%	54%	67%	88%	74%	63%	58%	65%	69%	56%
Avg Max Decline		3.15%	5.50%	5.18%	7.70%	5.71%	5.74%	7.54%	8.47%	6.93%	6.02%	3.27%
Max Decline		11.88%	14.00%	7.91%	16.56%	16.03%	12.14%	29.88%	15.13%	12.06%	22.58%	7.23%
Avg Days To Max Decline		10	17	16	22	17	16	18	18	15	16	12
Avg Max Increase		-1.00%	-0.50%	-1.02%	-1.44%	-0.65%	-1.47%	-1.09%	-1.27%	-1.62%	-2.77%	-1.21%
Max Increase		-2.56%	-1.99%	-2.32%	-5.25%	-1.94%	-8.09%	-3.24%	-4.09%	-5.51%	-8.36%	-5.88%
Avg Days to Max Increase		8	6	6	7	4	8	8	5	8	13	3
2013 Contract Condition		Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes
Action		Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No			Not Yet
High	159.135	158.300	158.000	163.530	164.250	162.135	157.530	156.135	151.750	152.635	157.400	159.385
Low	158.000	156.000	154.550	156.750	157.000	153.900	147.100	147.000	144.575	145.400	151.930	154.100
Close/Last	158.000	156.750	157.100	162.750	161.650	156.885	154.150	150.680	146.575	151.600	156.985	156.930