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| ScenarioSM Study for August Feeder Cattle(CME) as of Jul 11, 2025 | ||||||||||||
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| Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
| Tested Month | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul |
| Tested Years | 23 | 42 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | |
| Closed Higher | 12 | 18 | 26 | 29 | 28 | 26 | 19 | 23 | 27 | 29 | 28 | |
| Exceeded High | 9 | 12 | 23 | 28 | 25 | 17 | 17 | 21 | 21 | 28 | 22 | |
| Scenario Percentage | 75% | 67% | 88% | 97% | 89% | 65% | 89% | 91% | 78% | 97% | 79% | |
| Avg Max Increase | 4.39% | 3.83% | 3.95% | 3.75% | 4.09% | 6.42% | 5.49% | 5.18% | 6.06% | 5.40% | 3.38% | |
| Max Increase | 7.56% | 9.20% | 9.89% | 8.95% | 11.01% | 22.87% | 22.24% | 16.08% | 13.45% | 12.05% | 10.72% | |
| Avg Days To Max Increase | 12 | 20 | 19 | 15 | 17 | 17 | 18 | 20 | 19 | 17 | 15 | |
| Avg Max Decline | -0.93% | -1.34% | -1.35% | -1.12% | -0.94% | -1.14% | -1.48% | -1.82% | -2.30% | -1.43% | -1.02% | |
| Max Decline | -2.65% | -2.64% | -4.34% | -5.57% | -2.67% | -3.75% | -5.63% | -6.81% | -7.20% | -4.71% | -2.83% | |
| Avg Days to Max Decline | 7 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 4 | |
| 2025 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||
| Action | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |||
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
