MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for August Feeder Cattle(CME) as of Jan 21, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul
Tested Years		22	41	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		13	17	27	28	28	26	20	25	26	26	28
Exceeded High		11	11	24	27	25	18	18	21	20	25	21
Scenario Percentage		85%	65%	89%	96%	89%	69%	90%	84%	77%	96%	75%
Avg Max Increase		4.44%	3.93%	4.47%	4.31%	4.83%	6.62%	6.46%	5.59%	6.11%	5.66%	3.38%
Max Increase		7.56%	9.20%	11.09%	14.29%	16.73%	22.87%	24.60%	16.16%	13.45%	11.53%	10.72%
Avg Days To Max Increase		15	18	20	16	17	17	18	19	19	17	15
Avg Max Decline		-1.18%	-1.38%	-1.29%	-1.09%	-1.21%	-1.26%	-1.51%	-1.62%	-2.16%	-1.37%	-1.05%
Max Decline		-2.86%	-3.21%	-4.34%	-5.57%	-4.41%	-4.38%	-5.63%	-6.81%	-7.20%	-4.71%	-2.83%
Avg Days to Max Decline		10	8	10	10	7	6	11	11	8	6	4
2021 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		No		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul
Tested Years		22	41	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		8	24	18	17	17	19	25	20	19	19	17
Penetrated Low		8	14	11	9	13	15	21	12	9	13	10
Scenario Percentage		100%	58%	61%	53%	76%	79%	84%	60%	47%	68%	59%
Avg Max Decline		5.15%	5.69%	7.05%	5.70%	7.77%	8.00%	6.50%	5.55%	7.91%	6.00%	2.57%
Max Decline		15.04%	15.87%	15.49%	10.70%	21.82%	22.27%	14.64%	12.20%	12.42%	12.18%	5.65%
Avg Days To Max Decline		16	15	18	16	18	18	15	19	21	16	8
Avg Max Increase		-2.41%	-1.00%	-0.44%	-1.25%	-1.32%	-1.16%	-1.27%	-2.11%	-2.20%	-2.20%	-0.96%
Max Increase		-10.70%	-4.41%	-1.54%	-2.95%	-5.44%	-4.89%	-7.40%	-8.42%	-5.97%	-6.78%	-3.67%
Avg Days to Max Increase		9	8	4	6	6	5	7	8	12	6	3
2021 Contract Condition			Yes						Yes
Action			No						Yes
High	142.100	147.280	146.300	147.200	151.485	154.750	154.680	160.900	162.400	158.735	160.150	163.150
Low	141.600	142.080	134.800	141.180	145.100	144.635	149.500	149.885	146.300	141.530	145.100	152.200
Close/Last	142.050	144.830	142.350	146.985	149.030	149.950	151.950	157.280	146.750	151.350	154.635	158.180