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| ScenarioSM Study for May Feeder Cattle(CME) as of Jul 11, 2025 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
| Tested Month | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr |
| Tested Years | 29 | 41 | 44 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | |
| Closed Higher | 18 | 30 | 21 | 24 | 22 | 24 | 30 | 25 | 26 | 21 | 22 | |
| Exceeded High | 16 | 24 | 15 | 18 | 18 | 22 | 30 | 23 | 21 | 19 | 14 | |
| Scenario Percentage | 89% | 80% | 71% | 75% | 82% | 92% | 100% | 92% | 81% | 90% | 64% | |
| Avg Max Increase | 4.17% | 3.75% | 4.52% | 4.56% | 3.96% | 4.19% | 3.69% | 4.67% | 5.80% | 5.38% | 3.53% | |
| Max Increase | 7.62% | 7.99% | 11.36% | 9.19% | 10.43% | 8.51% | 12.17% | 11.10% | 20.14% | 20.48% | 6.82% | |
| Avg Days To Max Increase | 18 | 18 | 16 | 19 | 20 | 17 | 16 | 18 | 16 | 12 | 14 | |
| Avg Max Decline | -1.12% | -1.33% | -1.18% | -0.92% | -1.08% | -1.72% | -1.42% | -1.39% | -1.83% | -1.61% | -0.39% | |
| Max Decline | -2.90% | -4.76% | -4.98% | -2.55% | -2.97% | -4.84% | -6.22% | -4.26% | -5.22% | -6.08% | -1.35% | |
| Avg Days to Max Decline | 11 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 2 | |
| 2025 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||||
| Action | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||||
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
