MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Feeder Cattle(CME) as of Jan 01, 2013
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		20	32	35	37	38	38	41	41	41	41	41
Closed Higher		11	21	18	20	16	20	23	27	25	20	23
Exceeded High		10	16	13	16	12	18	23	23	21	19	14
Scenario Percentage		91%	76%	72%	80%	75%	90%	100%	85%	84%	95%	61%
Avg Max Increase		4.08%	3.66%	4.27%	4.35%	3.94%	4.99%	5.44%	5.90%	6.54%	5.96%	3.60%
Max Increase		6.75%	8.60%	10.67%	8.83%	10.43%	10.55%	17.01%	16.55%	21.46%	20.48%	11.90%
Avg Days To Max Increase		16	18	15	22	18	19	16	17	15	13	15
Avg Max Decline		-0.86%	-1.41%	-1.38%	-1.75%	-0.85%	-1.45%	-1.15%	-1.60%	-1.98%	-1.65%	-0.50%
Max Decline		-2.45%	-4.48%	-4.98%	-9.65%	-3.19%	-4.84%	-6.22%	-5.66%	-5.23%	-4.62%	-1.82%
Avg Days to Max Decline		9	11	8	11	5	10	10	10	9	7	2
2012 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action		Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Not Yet

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		20	32	35	37	38	38	41	41	41	41	41
Closed Lower		9	11	15	17	22	17	18	14	16	21	18
Penetrated Low		7	8	10	15	16	10	10	11	12	16	10
Scenario Percentage		78%	73%	67%	88%	73%	59%	56%	79%	75%	76%	56%
Avg Max Decline		4.66%	4.90%	3.51%	5.17%	5.83%	6.68%	6.60%	6.86%	8.54%	6.83%	4.18%
Max Decline		7.50%	13.63%	13.50%	16.11%	18.56%	17.50%	16.54%	17.19%	18.27%	17.99%	7.25%
Avg Days To Max Decline		13	15	12	17	15	18	21	20	21	13	12
Avg Max Increase		-1.50%	-1.36%	-1.23%	-0.95%	-1.10%	-0.88%	-1.19%	-1.62%	-0.87%	-1.51%	-0.63%
Max Increase		-4.57%	-5.64%	-3.14%	-2.23%	-3.22%	-2.48%	-3.09%	-5.49%	-3.22%	-7.21%	-1.30%
Avg Days to Max Increase		10	8	10	10	10	6	7	7	7	6	3
2012 Contract Condition				Yes		Yes					Yes
Action				No		No					Yes
High	126.650	137.500	142.800	141.000	147.650	149.100	152.300	152.150	158.500	162.350	163.400	153.650
Low	126.000	125.000	135.750	134.750	135.750	144.000	145.200	145.135	151.385	157.075	149.000	146.200
Close/Last	126.000	137.250	139.700	136.000	147.600	146.500	150.000	151.135	158.325	161.885	149.135	149.825