MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for April Feeder Cattle(CME) as of Oct 06, 2023
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		24	39	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		14	24	32	20	23	20	27	30	25	26	19
Exceeded High		13	22	24	15	19	15	24	27	22	20	16
Scenario Percentage		93%	92%	75%	75%	83%	75%	89%	90%	88%	77%	84%
Avg Max Increase		5.91%	4.77%	3.80%	3.76%	4.31%	4.43%	4.41%	4.20%	5.09%	5.40%	3.08%
Max Increase		11.53%	9.99%	8.89%	10.58%	8.15%	10.94%	9.81%	15.89%	15.31%	12.23%	6.85%
Avg Days To Max Increase		20	19	18	14	17	20	18	16	17	13	13
Avg Max Decline		-2.29%	-0.85%	-1.49%	-1.33%	-1.11%	-1.63%	-1.80%	-1.63%	-1.53%	-1.60%	-0.67%
Max Decline		-9.58%	-2.55%	-4.91%	-5.68%	-4.22%	-3.55%	-4.91%	-6.72%	-3.52%	-4.58%	-3.21%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	9	11	9	7	9	12	9	9	6	2
2023 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	Yes	No		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		24	39	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		10	15	12	25	22	24	18	15	20	19	26
Penetrated Low		6	11	8	16	21	15	12	8	16	14	16
Scenario Percentage		60%	73%	67%	64%	95%	63%	67%	53%	80%	74%	62%
Avg Max Decline		3.31%	5.98%	5.28%	5.10%	4.60%	7.33%	6.87%	6.74%	8.29%	8.95%	5.76%
Max Decline		8.48%	10.47%	15.90%	15.39%	15.76%	18.71%	17.23%	11.37%	21.40%	21.67%	14.75%
Avg Days To Max Decline		19	14	15	13	18	16	16	19	17	13	12
Avg Max Increase		-1.93%	-1.61%	-1.71%	-1.09%	-1.69%	-1.51%	-1.23%	-1.85%	-1.94%	-0.91%	-0.49%
Max Increase		-4.95%	-4.71%	-6.32%	-2.92%	-10.72%	-4.67%	-5.68%	-3.59%	-6.36%	-3.45%	-1.71%
Avg Days to Max Increase		7	8	11	9	9	13	6	10	7	6	2
2023 Contract Condition		Yes				Yes
Action		No				Yes
High	179.350	182.680	184.580	191.680	194.850	192.600	188.180	188.235	190.550	192.200	195.450	202.250
Low	176.500	174.150	178.750	182.400	188.800	181.635	179.430	182.385	186.300	184.150	187.150	192.650
Close/Last	176.500	176.350	184.135	188.600	189.985	182.135	185.530	186.800	189.635	190.050	195.080	200.830