MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for April Feeder Cattle(CME) as of Dec 30, 2016
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		18	33	39	40	40	42	42	44	44	44	44
Closed Higher		10	19	25	19	20	17	24	27	27	25	22
Exceeded High		10	18	18	15	17	11	21	25	23	20	19
Scenario Percentage		100%	95%	72%	79%	85%	65%	88%	93%	85%	80%	86%
Avg Max Increase		5.20%	4.54%	3.81%	3.76%	4.18%	4.66%	4.93%	5.58%	5.98%	7.12%	3.95%
Max Increase		11.53%	9.99%	8.89%	10.58%	8.15%	10.94%	10.71%	16.45%	18.88%	21.09%	13.09%
Avg Days To Max Increase		18	19	18	14	20	21	19	16	16	11	13
Avg Max Decline		-2.40%	-0.81%	-1.59%	-1.33%	-1.12%	-1.44%	-1.45%	-1.18%	-1.70%	-1.36%	-0.80%
Max Decline		-9.58%	-2.55%	-4.91%	-5.68%	-4.22%	-3.55%	-4.91%	-6.72%	-5.36%	-4.58%	-4.35%
Avg Days to Max Decline		8	10	11	9	8	9	10	8	10	5	1
2016 Contract Condition		Yes					Yes		Yes		Yes
Action		Yes					No		Yes		Yes

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		18	33	39	40	40	42	42	44	44	44	44
Closed Lower		8	14	14	21	20	24	18	17	17	19	22
Penetrated Low		5	10	10	12	18	16	11	11	13	13	13
Scenario Percentage		63%	71%	71%	57%	90%	67%	61%	65%	76%	68%	59%
Avg Max Decline		3.16%	6.17%	6.05%	4.55%	4.88%	6.81%	7.17%	7.33%	7.80%	8.15%	5.34%
Max Decline		8.48%	10.47%	15.90%	14.09%	15.76%	18.71%	17.23%	15.63%	16.52%	13.35%	9.69%
Avg Days To Max Decline		19	13	16	13	19	17	16	19	20	13	14
Avg Max Increase		-0.71%	-1.05%	-2.01%	-1.15%	-1.49%	-1.47%	-1.47%	-1.69%	-1.77%	-0.44%	-0.61%
Max Increase		-3.76%	-4.71%	-6.32%	-2.92%	-10.72%	-4.67%	-5.68%	-3.59%	-6.36%	-2.82%	-1.71%
Avg Days to Max Increase		6	4	11	10	9	13	6	8	6	4	2
2016 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes		Yes
Action			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes		Yes
High	202.450	213.000	213.080	206.500	200.000	188.680	183.850	180.580	164.650	166.500	159.885	166.735
Low	202.450	203.000	204.000	195.230	184.200	165.385	163.850	156.930	142.550	148.300	146.850	151.450
Close/Last	202.450	212.500	204.000	196.650	187.100	166.050	179.700	161.950	163.530	156.680	159.080	157.080