MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for April Feeder Cattle(CME) as of Dec 31, 2010
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		12	27	33	34	34	36	36	38	38	38	38
Closed Higher		7	15	21	17	17	13	20	22	24	21	19
Exceeded High		7	14	14	14	14	8	18	21	20	16	16
Scenario Percentage		100%	93%	67%	82%	82%	62%	90%	95%	83%	76%	84%
Avg Max Increase		5.49%	4.78%	3.53%	3.96%	4.27%	4.26%	4.80%	5.69%	6.09%	7.88%	4.42%
Max Increase		9.27%	9.99%	8.89%	10.58%	8.15%	7.62%	10.71%	16.45%	18.88%	21.09%	13.09%
Avg Days To Max Increase		19	19	15	14	21	19	19	16	16	12	14
Avg Max Decline		-3.37%	-0.89%	-1.22%	-1.37%	-1.15%	-1.33%	-1.38%	-1.22%	-1.64%	-1.39%	-0.87%
Max Decline		-9.58%	-2.54%	-4.91%	-5.68%	-4.22%	-3.55%	-4.91%	-6.72%	-5.36%	-4.58%	-4.35%
Avg Days to Max Decline		10	11	9	9	10	8	9	8	10	5	1
2010 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes					Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes		No					Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		12	27	33	34	34	36	36	38	38	38	38
Closed Lower		5	12	12	17	17	22	16	16	14	17	19
Penetrated Low		4	8	9	11	15	15	9	10	10	12	10
Scenario Percentage		80%	67%	75%	65%	88%	68%	56%	63%	71%	71%	53%
Avg Max Decline		3.86%	5.52%	4.96%	3.84%	5.12%	6.72%	7.23%	6.93%	7.88%	8.14%	5.30%
Max Decline		8.48%	10.47%	14.00%	14.09%	15.76%	18.71%	17.23%	15.63%	16.52%	13.35%	9.69%
Avg Days To Max Decline		23	11	14	14	20	17	16	21	22	13	12
Avg Max Increase		-0.84%	-1.19%	-2.05%	-1.18%	-0.84%	-1.26%	-0.98%	-1.54%	-2.16%	-0.40%	-0.48%
Max Increase		-3.76%	-4.71%	-6.32%	-2.92%	-2.23%	-3.41%	-3.15%	-3.59%	-6.36%	-2.82%	-1.71%
Avg Days to Max Increase		7	5	11	10	8	13	6	9	7	4	2
2010 Contract Condition			Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action			No		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
High	98.950	99.700	99.700	102.400	102.400	102.250	99.200	97.600	97.650	101.400	104.300	110.700
Low	98.950	98.100	95.000	99.700	100.000	98.100	95.500	93.700	92.925	96.800	98.800	102.500
Close/Last	98.950	99.700	99.000	101.900	100.500	99.050	96.400	95.200	97.625	100.950	102.500	110.425