MRCI Online
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| ScenarioSM Study for March Feeder Cattle(CME) as of Aug 18, 2023 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
| Tested Month | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb |
| Tested Years | 24 | 39 | 44 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | |
| Closed Higher | 15 | 22 | 28 | 31 | 22 | 24 | 18 | 25 | 29 | 20 | 23 | |
| Exceeded High | 12 | 17 | 26 | 23 | 15 | 18 | 13 | 22 | 25 | 17 | 13 | |
| Scenario Percentage | 80% | 77% | 93% | 74% | 68% | 75% | 72% | 88% | 86% | 85% | 57% | |
| Avg Max Increase | 6.26% | 5.66% | 4.66% | 4.08% | 3.96% | 4.70% | 4.07% | 4.57% | 4.41% | 5.50% | 3.87% | |
| Max Increase | 15.13% | 11.81% | 9.73% | 9.12% | 11.69% | 7.98% | 8.53% | 8.83% | 15.68% | 16.33% | 8.33% | |
| Avg Days To Max Increase | 18 | 21 | 19 | 18 | 14 | 17 | 16 | 18 | 17 | 15 | 16 | |
| Avg Max Decline | -1.53% | -2.18% | -0.86% | -1.78% | -1.61% | -1.28% | -1.52% | -2.12% | -1.81% | -1.38% | -0.83% | |
| Max Decline | -7.26% | -10.19% | -2.93% | -5.11% | -5.64% | -5.82% | -4.75% | -5.65% | -8.06% | -4.08% | -3.08% | |
| Avg Days to Max Decline | 7 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 3 | |
| 2023 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |||||
| Action | Yes | Yes | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |||||
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
