MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March Feeder Cattle(CME) as of Sep 16, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		23	39	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		15	22	27	30	21	25	17	25	29	21	23
Exceeded High		12	17	25	22	15	19	12	22	25	18	13
Scenario Percentage		80%	77%	93%	73%	71%	76%	71%	88%	86%	86%	57%
Avg Max Increase		6.26%	5.66%	4.62%	4.13%	3.96%	4.70%	4.14%	4.97%	4.89%	6.14%	4.54%
Max Increase		15.13%	11.81%	9.73%	9.12%	11.69%	7.98%	8.53%	11.70%	15.68%	16.68%	10.89%
Avg Days To Max Increase		18	21	19	18	14	18	15	19	17	15	16
Avg Max Decline		-1.53%	-2.18%	-0.85%	-1.88%	-1.61%	-1.31%	-1.54%	-2.13%	-1.73%	-1.30%	-0.71%
Max Decline		-7.26%	-10.19%	-2.93%	-5.11%	-5.64%	-5.82%	-4.75%	-5.65%	-8.06%	-4.08%	-3.08%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	11	8	10	10	10	6	12	7	6	3
2022 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	Yes	Yes	No		Yes	Yes	No

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		23	39	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		8	17	17	15	24	20	28	19	16	24	22
Penetrated Low		5	9	12	11	14	19	18	14	9	20	14
Scenario Percentage		63%	53%	71%	73%	58%	95%	64%	74%	56%	83%	64%
Avg Max Decline		5.93%	4.80%	6.04%	6.37%	5.64%	5.05%	6.69%	7.27%	7.26%	6.89%	6.58%
Max Decline		11.55%	9.41%	10.51%	16.22%	15.41%	15.42%	17.94%	16.90%	11.19%	20.26%	17.35%
Avg Days To Max Decline		19	19	15	17	13	16	17	17	17	17	18
Avg Max Increase		-1.47%	-1.75%	-1.16%	-1.86%	-1.20%	-1.88%	-1.86%	-1.62%	-1.31%	-1.86%	-0.82%
Max Increase		-5.91%	-5.40%	-4.09%	-5.95%	-3.02%	-10.79%	-4.78%	-5.93%	-3.29%	-6.48%	-3.62%
Avg Days to Max Increase		3	8	8	8	5	8	12	11	6	8	4
2022 Contract Condition		Yes					Yes				Yes	Yes
Action		Yes					Yes				Yes	Yes
High	156.600	161.650	157.330	164.385	167.385	171.580	170.530	163.735	169.080	170.830	170.700	169.385
Low	154.635	150.580	148.350	148.550	159.930	164.150	154.500	154.200	152.250	159.900	158.235	156.235
Close/Last	154.635	151.580	153.450	162.150	165.330	169.030	155.385	157.400	166.500	169.950	163.030	157.735