MRCI Online
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| ScenarioSM Study for March Feeder Cattle(CME) as of Dec 30, 2016 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
| Tested Month | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb |
| Tested Years | 17 | 33 | 38 | 41 | 42 | 42 | 44 | 44 | 44 | 44 | 44 | |
| Closed Higher | 12 | 18 | 22 | 25 | 22 | 23 | 15 | 24 | 26 | 23 | 22 | |
| Exceeded High | 9 | 14 | 21 | 18 | 16 | 18 | 9 | 21 | 24 | 19 | 13 | |
| Scenario Percentage | 75% | 78% | 95% | 72% | 73% | 78% | 60% | 88% | 92% | 83% | 59% | |
| Avg Max Increase | 6.97% | 5.17% | 4.37% | 4.16% | 4.21% | 5.09% | 4.06% | 5.95% | 5.74% | 6.21% | 4.29% | |
| Max Increase | 15.13% | 11.81% | 9.73% | 9.12% | 11.69% | 8.82% | 5.76% | 22.42% | 15.82% | 16.68% | 10.89% | |
| Avg Days To Max Increase | 20 | 19 | 19 | 18 | 15 | 20 | 16 | 17 | 17 | 14 | 13 | |
| Avg Max Decline | -0.49% | -2.16% | -0.88% | -1.78% | -1.59% | -1.87% | -1.51% | -1.62% | -1.42% | -1.84% | -0.56% | |
| Max Decline | -1.68% | -10.19% | -2.93% | -5.11% | -5.64% | -9.63% | -4.75% | -5.65% | -8.06% | -8.80% | -1.60% | |
| Avg Days to Max Decline | 5 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 2 | |
| 2016 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||||||||
| Action | No | No | Yes | Yes | ||||||||
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
