MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March Feeder Cattle(CME) as of Jan 01, 2015
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		15	31	36	39	40	40	42	42	42	42	42
Closed Higher		11	16	21	24	22	22	14	23	25	23	21
Exceeded High		8	13	20	17	16	17	9	21	23	19	12
Scenario Percentage		73%	81%	95%	71%	73%	77%	64%	91%	92%	83%	57%
Avg Max Increase		5.95%	4.66%	4.42%	3.94%	4.21%	5.11%	4.06%	5.95%	5.90%	6.34%	4.50%
Max Increase		13.41%	8.56%	9.73%	9.12%	11.69%	8.82%	5.76%	22.42%	15.82%	16.68%	10.89%
Avg Days To Max Increase		19	18	19	18	15	21	16	17	17	15	14
Avg Max Decline		-0.58%	-2.32%	-0.80%	-1.63%	-1.59%	-1.96%	-1.51%	-1.62%	-1.40%	-1.84%	-0.48%
Max Decline		-1.68%	-10.19%	-2.93%	-5.11%	-5.64%	-9.63%	-4.75%	-5.65%	-8.06%	-8.80%	-1.60%
Avg Days to Max Decline		6	12	9	8	10	10	7	9	6	7	2
2014 Contract Condition				Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action				Yes	Yes		Yes	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		15	31	36	39	40	40	42	42	42	42	42
Closed Lower		4	15	15	15	18	18	28	18	17	19	20
Penetrated Low		2	7	11	11	10	16	19	13	11	15	12
Scenario Percentage		50%	47%	73%	73%	56%	89%	68%	72%	65%	79%	60%
Avg Max Decline		4.87%	5.16%	5.71%	5.52%	4.71%	5.11%	6.75%	7.85%	7.43%	6.60%	5.78%
Max Decline		7.23%	9.41%	10.51%	14.35%	14.82%	15.42%	17.94%	16.94%	15.28%	12.39%	9.34%
Avg Days To Max Decline		23	18	14	15	13	17	17	16	20	18	17
Avg Max Increase		0.00%	-0.79%	-1.08%	-1.72%	-1.06%	-1.07%	-1.82%	-1.95%	-1.64%	-2.00%	-0.44%
Max Increase		0.00%	-1.73%	-4.09%	-5.95%	-3.02%	-2.93%	-3.66%	-7.17%	-4.74%	-6.48%	-2.47%
Avg Days to Max Increase		1	9	8	9	5	7	12	10	9	9	4
2014 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes			Yes
Action		Yes	No			No
High	157.700	157.700	153.000	156.700	160.280	160.000	163.450	168.550	165.900	168.430	170.800	172.735
Low	157.700	150.000	149.150	150.200	156.430	155.000	156.550	162.575	161.885	163.825	166.000	166.430
Close/Last	157.700	153.000	150.400	155.950	159.680	157.825	163.050	164.500	165.680	167.400	169.430	171.700