MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for January Feeder Cattle(CME) as of Oct 20, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years		23	34	35	39	39	40	42	42	42	42	42
Closed Higher		14	15	23	24	25	29	19	23	15	24	24
Exceeded High		11	14	19	21	24	23	17	21	12	20	19
Scenario Percentage		79%	93%	83%	88%	96%	79%	89%	91%	80%	83%	79%
Avg Max Increase		7.41%	6.48%	5.17%	4.94%	4.77%	4.49%	4.13%	4.56%	3.98%	4.68%	3.23%
Max Increase		23.34%	23.36%	15.37%	12.51%	10.16%	9.97%	15.07%	12.29%	8.07%	10.33%	7.28%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	16	19	20	17	17	12	17	14	18	16
Avg Max Decline		-0.79%	-1.23%	-1.03%	-2.38%	-1.23%	-1.83%	-1.20%	-1.51%	-1.48%	-1.94%	-0.73%
Max Decline		-4.25%	-7.28%	-3.95%	-11.41%	-5.98%	-5.68%	-5.73%	-7.29%	-4.34%	-5.38%	-2.57%
Avg Days to Max Decline		5	10	12	10	7	10	8	8	9	10	4
2019 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes			Yes
Action		No		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes			Not Yet

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years		23	34	35	39	39	40	42	42	42	42	42
Closed Lower		8	19	12	15	14	11	23	18	27	18	17
Penetrated Low		6	15	6	7	10	8	15	18	17	14	9
Scenario Percentage		75%	79%	50%	47%	71%	73%	65%	100%	63%	78%	53%
Avg Max Decline		6.12%	3.65%	5.27%	5.68%	6.50%	6.51%	5.02%	5.64%	6.40%	6.88%	3.90%
Max Decline		9.60%	11.95%	8.92%	10.44%	10.88%	16.12%	15.43%	15.48%	14.68%	13.88%	8.52%
Avg Days To Max Decline		20	17	20	20	17	15	15	16	16	16	15
Avg Max Increase		-0.92%	-1.45%	-1.47%	-1.39%	-1.48%	-2.59%	-1.76%	-2.00%	-2.10%	-1.80%	-1.11%
Max Increase		-4.87%	-6.97%	-6.79%	-5.73%	-4.42%	-6.75%	-6.22%	-12.09%	-4.32%	-6.26%	-4.12%
Avg Days to Max Increase		4	7	5	10	8	11	12	8	10	9	4
2019 Contract Condition			Yes					Yes		Yes	Yes
Action			Yes					Yes		Yes	Yes
High	147.000	150.950	148.000	144.700	145.000	147.735	153.500	152.500	155.985	156.580	151.250	149.850
Low	143.385	144.600	137.150	134.235	135.735	140.930	146.235	144.580	144.530	147.580	142.680	143.135
Close/Last	144.885	146.350	137.450	141.280	143.700	147.650	149.080	145.800	154.650	150.135	145.235	148.850