MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for December EuroFX(CME) as of Sep 29, 2023
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		24	24	24	24	24	24	24	24	24	24	24
Closed Higher		8	10	10	12	10	13	12	11	11	11	11
Exceeded High		7	8	9	9	6	9	10	8	8	8	8
Scenario Percentage		88%	80%	90%	75%	60%	69%	83%	73%	73%	73%	73%
Avg Max Increase		2.66%	3.87%	5.13%	3.67%	4.71%	3.96%	3.14%	2.98%	3.87%	4.07%	2.19%
Max Increase		6.48%	7.39%	9.72%	10.97%	9.55%	8.58%	6.59%	5.58%	7.26%	8.21%	3.26%
Avg Days To Max Increase		18	21	19	18	22	19	15	13	19	13	11
Avg Max Decline		-1.39%	-0.94%	-1.18%	-0.72%	-1.08%	-1.23%	-1.30%	-0.82%	-1.23%	-0.93%	-0.43%
Max Decline		-2.92%	-2.54%	-2.95%	-2.75%	-2.69%	-3.03%	-3.54%	-2.82%	-2.19%	-2.33%	-0.95%
Avg Days to Max Decline		12	6	10	5	9	6	14	3	13	7	2
2023 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action		Yes		Yes	No		Yes	No

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		24	24	24	24	24	24	24	24	24	24	24
Closed Lower		16	14	14	12	14	11	12	13	13	13	13
Penetrated Low		12	12	11	9	13	8	9	11	12	11	5
Scenario Percentage		75%	86%	79%	75%	93%	73%	75%	85%	92%	85%	38%
Avg Max Decline		3.99%	3.96%	4.67%	4.52%	2.26%	3.19%	5.36%	4.38%	3.76%	2.82%	1.82%
Max Decline		7.26%	7.01%	9.94%	10.42%	3.67%	5.93%	10.80%	15.36%	12.79%	5.63%	3.65%
Avg Days To Max Decline		18	21	21	15	16	15	17	18	14	11	8
Avg Max Increase		-1.51%	-0.82%	-0.99%	-0.53%	-1.82%	-0.55%	-1.01%	-1.11%	-0.89%	-0.95%	-1.60%
Max Increase		-3.56%	-3.68%	-2.59%	-2.11%	-4.05%	-2.31%	-1.80%	-1.94%	-2.92%	-3.00%	-3.86%
Avg Days to Max Increase		10	8	10	3	14	8	6	8	9	4	3
2023 Contract Condition			Yes			Yes			Yes	Yes
Action			Yes			No			Yes	Not Yet
High	109.70	111.15	111.99	110.58	112.14	112.05	111.07	113.58	111.28	109.38
Low	106.69	106.92	107.06	106.53	109.24	107.53	107.75	109.20	108.27	105.26
Close/Last	109.12	110.44	107.50	109.89	111.40	107.89	110.02	110.74	109.01	106.13