MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for December EuroFX(CME) as of Jun 23, 2023
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		24	24	24	24	24	24	24	24	24	24	24
Closed Higher		8	10	10	12	10	13	12	11	11	11	11
Exceeded High		7	8	9	9	6	9	10	8	8	8	8
Scenario Percentage		88%	80%	90%	75%	60%	69%	83%	73%	73%	73%	73%
Avg Max Increase		2.66%	3.87%	5.13%	3.67%	4.71%	3.96%	3.14%	2.98%	3.87%	4.07%	2.19%
Max Increase		6.48%	7.39%	9.72%	10.97%	9.55%	8.58%	6.59%	5.58%	7.26%	8.21%	3.26%
Avg Days To Max Increase		18	21	19	18	22	19	15	13	19	13	11
Avg Max Decline		-1.39%	-0.94%	-1.18%	-0.72%	-1.08%	-1.23%	-1.30%	-0.82%	-1.23%	-0.93%	-0.43%
Max Decline		-2.92%	-2.54%	-2.95%	-2.75%	-2.69%	-3.03%	-3.54%	-2.82%	-2.19%	-2.33%	-0.95%
Avg Days to Max Decline		12	6	10	5	9	6	14	3	13	7	2
2022 Contract Condition						Yes					Yes	Yes
Action						No					Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		24	24	24	24	24	24	24	24	24	24	24
Closed Lower		16	14	14	12	14	11	12	13	13	13	13
Penetrated Low		12	12	11	9	13	8	9	11	12	11	5
Scenario Percentage		75%	86%	79%	75%	93%	73%	75%	85%	92%	85%	38%
Avg Max Decline		3.99%	3.96%	4.67%	4.52%	2.26%	3.19%	5.36%	4.38%	3.76%	2.82%	1.82%
Max Decline		7.26%	7.01%	9.94%	10.42%	3.67%	5.93%	10.80%	15.36%	12.79%	5.63%	3.65%
Avg Days To Max Decline		18	21	21	15	16	15	17	18	14	11	8
Avg Max Increase		-1.51%	-0.82%	-0.99%	-0.53%	-1.82%	-0.55%	-1.01%	-1.11%	-0.89%	-0.95%	-1.60%
Max Increase		-3.56%	-3.68%	-2.59%	-2.11%	-4.05%	-2.31%	-1.80%	-1.94%	-2.92%	-3.00%	-3.86%
Avg Days to Max Increase		10	8	10	3	14	8	6	8	9	4	3
2022 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	No
High	115.05	116.00	116.40	113.75	112.34	109.17	108.93	106.15	104.67	102.65	101.32	105.14
Low	113.56	112.61	112.54	109.54	106.29	104.96	105.07	100.76	99.86	95.92	96.75	97.61
Close/Last	115.05	113.78	113.73	112.30	107.28	108.66	106.14	103.25	101.20	98.62	99.24	104.29