MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for December EuroFX(CME) as of May 10, 2021
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		22	22	22	22	22	22	22	22	22	22	22
Closed Higher		8	10	10	11	8	13	11	11	11	10	10
Exceeded High		7	8	9	8	6	9	10	8	8	7	7
Scenario Percentage		88%	80%	90%	73%	75%	69%	91%	73%	73%	70%	70%
Avg Max Increase		2.66%	3.87%	5.13%	3.89%	4.71%	3.96%	3.14%	2.98%	3.87%	3.46%	2.02%
Max Increase		6.48%	7.39%	9.72%	10.97%	9.55%	8.58%	6.59%	5.58%	7.26%	5.35%	3.26%
Avg Days To Max Increase		18	21	19	17	22	19	15	13	19	13	8
Avg Max Decline		-1.39%	-0.94%	-1.18%	-0.77%	-1.08%	-1.23%	-1.30%	-0.82%	-1.23%	-0.83%	-0.46%
Max Decline		-2.92%	-2.54%	-2.95%	-2.75%	-2.69%	-3.03%	-3.54%	-2.82%	-2.19%	-2.33%	-0.95%
Avg Days to Max Decline		12	6	10	5	9	6	14	3	13	8	2
2020 Contract Condition						Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes
Action						Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		22	22	22	22	22	22	22	22	22	22	22
Closed Lower		14	12	12	11	14	9	11	11	11	12	12
Penetrated Low		10	10	10	8	13	6	8	9	11	10	5
Scenario Percentage		71%	83%	83%	73%	93%	67%	73%	82%	100%	83%	42%
Avg Max Decline		4.05%	3.78%	4.49%	4.82%	2.26%	2.99%	5.15%	4.49%	3.79%	2.65%	1.57%
Max Decline		7.26%	7.01%	9.94%	10.42%	3.67%	5.93%	10.80%	15.36%	12.79%	5.38%	3.65%
Avg Days To Max Decline		18	19	22	15	16	13	16	18	13	9	8
Avg Max Increase		-1.50%	-0.96%	-1.09%	-0.52%	-1.82%	-0.65%	-0.97%	-1.10%	-0.89%	-1.00%	-1.60%
Max Increase		-3.56%	-3.68%	-2.59%	-2.11%	-4.05%	-2.31%	-1.80%	-1.94%	-2.92%	-3.00%	-3.86%
Avg Days to Max Increase		9	9	11	3	14	5	6	8	7	5	3
2020 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes					Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	No	No					Yes	Yes
High	114.80	114.28	112.79	116.01	111.21	111.92	114.66	119.42	119.95	120.38	118.95	120.08
Low	113.03	112.04	109.71	107.30	107.89	108.24	111.50	112.26	117.29	116.31	116.51	116.13
Close/Last	114.72	112.92	111.89	111.09	110.08	111.46	112.77	118.21	119.63	117.36	116.55	119.51