MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for December EuroFX(CME) as of Dec 30, 2016
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18
Closed Higher		6	10	8	10	6	10	8	9	11	9	8
Exceeded High		5	8	8	7	4	7	8	6	8	7	6
Scenario Percentage		83%	80%	100%	70%	67%	70%	100%	67%	73%	78%	75%
Avg Max Increase		3.39%	3.87%	5.12%	3.77%	4.04%	3.42%	3.45%	3.62%	3.87%	3.48%	2.11%
Max Increase		6.48%	7.39%	9.72%	10.97%	9.55%	8.58%	6.59%	5.58%	7.26%	5.35%	3.26%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	21	19	16	17	17	18	15	19	13	11
Avg Max Decline		-1.03%	-0.94%	-1.20%	-0.80%	-1.33%	-1.38%	-1.34%	-0.97%	-1.23%	-0.83%	-0.51%
Max Decline		-2.89%	-2.54%	-2.95%	-2.75%	-2.69%	-3.03%	-3.54%	-2.82%	-2.19%	-2.33%	-0.95%
Avg Days to Max Decline		9	6	10	4	9	7	16	4	13	8	2
2016 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes		Yes
Action			Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes		No

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18
Closed Lower		12	8	10	8	12	8	10	9	7	9	10
Penetrated Low		8	6	9	6	11	5	7	7	7	7	5
Scenario Percentage		67%	75%	90%	75%	92%	63%	70%	78%	100%	78%	50%
Avg Max Decline		4.12%	4.75%	4.83%	5.36%	2.38%	2.89%	5.55%	5.19%	4.89%	3.64%	1.82%
Max Decline		7.26%	7.01%	9.94%	10.42%	3.67%	5.93%	10.80%	15.36%	12.79%	5.63%	3.65%
Avg Days To Max Decline		19	20	22	13	14	13	14	19	17	10	8
Avg Max Increase		-1.50%	-0.62%	-1.11%	-0.66%	-1.87%	-0.59%	-0.91%	-1.02%	-1.07%	-0.98%	-1.60%
Max Increase		-3.56%	-1.50%	-2.59%	-2.11%	-4.05%	-2.31%	-1.80%	-1.94%	-2.92%	-3.00%	-3.86%
Avg Days to Max Increase		6	6	11	4	14	5	6	5	6	5	3
2016 Contract Condition		Yes				Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes
Action		No				Yes	No		Yes		Yes	Yes
High	111.90	111.08	114.89	115.14	115.58	117.01	114.98	112.63	114.23	113.73	112.85	113.17
Low	106.94	108.50	109.39	109.32	113.14	111.84	109.94	110.20	111.09	111.64	108.75	105.27
Close/Last	110.00	109.48	110.01	114.90	115.42	112.09	111.45	112.46	112.12	112.77	109.87	106.04