MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for December EuroFX(CME) as of Jan 01, 2016
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17
Closed Higher		6	9	7	9	6	10	7	9	10	9	8
Exceeded High		5	7	7	6	4	7	7	6	8	7	6
Scenario Percentage		83%	78%	100%	67%	67%	70%	100%	67%	80%	78%	75%
Avg Max Increase		3.39%	3.76%	5.59%	4.17%	4.04%	3.42%	3.71%	3.62%	3.87%	3.46%	2.04%
Max Increase		6.48%	7.39%	9.72%	10.97%	9.55%	8.58%	6.59%	5.58%	7.26%	5.35%	3.26%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	23	21	18	17	17	18	15	19	13	9
Avg Max Decline		-1.03%	-0.93%	-1.15%	-0.95%	-1.33%	-1.38%	-1.35%	-0.97%	-1.23%	-0.83%	-0.51%
Max Decline		-2.89%	-2.54%	-2.95%	-2.75%	-2.69%	-3.03%	-3.54%	-2.82%	-2.19%	-2.33%	-0.95%
Avg Days to Max Decline		9	5	9	4	9	7	17	4	13	8	2
2015 Contract Condition					Yes		Yes		Yes
Action					Yes		Yes		No

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17
Closed Lower		11	8	10	8	11	7	10	8	7	8	9
Penetrated Low		8	6	9	6	10	5	7	6	7	6	4
Scenario Percentage		73%	75%	90%	75%	91%	71%	70%	75%	100%	75%	44%
Avg Max Decline		4.12%	4.75%	4.83%	5.36%	2.42%	2.89%	5.55%	5.55%	4.89%	3.31%	1.72%
Max Decline		7.26%	7.01%	9.94%	10.42%	3.67%	5.93%	10.80%	15.36%	12.79%	5.38%	3.65%
Avg Days To Max Decline		19	20	22	13	13	13	14	18	17	10	7
Avg Max Increase		-1.50%	-0.62%	-1.11%	-0.66%	-1.80%	-0.59%	-0.91%	-0.95%	-1.07%	-0.64%	-1.35%
Max Increase		-3.56%	-1.50%	-2.59%	-2.11%	-4.05%	-2.31%	-1.80%	-1.94%	-2.92%	-1.34%	-3.86%
Avg Days to Max Increase		6	6	11	4	13	5	6	5	6	4	1
2015 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	No		Yes		No		Yes	Yes	Yes
High	125.90	121.00	115.42	112.80	113.00	115.01	114.61	112.41	117.33	114.76	115.05	110.59
Low	121.58	111.60	112.51	105.20	105.70	108.63	109.23	108.34	108.71	111.06	109.04	105.60
Close/Last	121.58	113.44	112.51	107.91	113.00	110.15	111.73	109.88	112.56	111.79	110.09	105.76