MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for September EuroFX(CME) as of Jan 21, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		21	22	22	23	23	23	23	23	23	23	23
Closed Higher		10	9	14	8	10	10	12	9	13	12	11
Exceeded High		9	7	10	7	8	9	10	7	9	10	6
Scenario Percentage		90%	78%	71%	88%	80%	90%	83%	78%	69%	83%	55%
Avg Max Increase		3.38%	4.67%	2.82%	2.78%	3.97%	5.28%	3.42%	4.30%	4.02%	2.30%	1.94%
Max Increase		7.08%	9.54%	4.49%	6.78%	7.66%	9.76%	11.14%	9.75%	8.77%	5.54%	3.35%
Avg Days To Max Increase		22	19	11	18	21	20	16	17	19	10	6
Avg Max Decline		-0.77%	-0.47%	-1.25%	-1.49%	-0.98%	-1.37%	-0.70%	-0.83%	-1.24%	-0.94%	-0.44%
Max Decline		-2.07%	-1.46%	-3.84%	-2.98%	-2.74%	-3.12%	-2.77%	-2.07%	-3.04%	-2.49%	-1.07%
Avg Days to Max Decline		9	6	9	13	7	8	4	6	6	7	2
2021 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes				Yes	Yes		Yes
Action			Yes	Yes				Yes	No		Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		21	22	22	23	23	23	23	23	23	23	23
Closed Lower		11	13	8	15	13	13	11	14	10	11	12
Penetrated Low		11	10	8	11	12	9	8	13	6	8	7
Scenario Percentage		100%	77%	100%	73%	92%	69%	73%	93%	60%	73%	58%
Avg Max Decline		2.64%	3.26%	3.95%	4.13%	3.64%	5.02%	4.93%	2.30%	3.00%	4.54%	2.35%
Max Decline		5.60%	10.70%	8.23%	7.32%	7.09%	10.05%	10.71%	3.70%	5.96%	10.78%	5.13%
Avg Days To Max Decline		12	19	19	18	19	26	15	16	16	8	9
Avg Max Increase		-0.67%	-2.04%	-0.98%	-1.56%	-0.89%	-1.29%	-0.62%	-1.87%	-0.40%	-0.95%	-0.75%
Max Increase		-2.88%	-3.65%	-2.63%	-3.64%	-3.86%	-2.82%	-2.13%	-4.12%	-1.01%	-1.67%	-1.58%
Avg Days to Max Increase		7	19	5	10	8	11	3	15	8	6	2
2021 Contract Condition		Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes		Yes
Action		Yes			Yes	Yes	No			Yes		Not Yet
High	120.88	119.61	120.73	123.74	124.14	122.95	121.60	121.84	122.93	122.79	119.19	119.09
Low	117.16	117.30	117.16	120.18	121.19	120.12	117.46	117.54	120.19	118.63	117.64	116.69
Close/Last	118.09	117.30	120.29	122.95	121.92	121.30	117.66	120.56	122.26	118.65	118.66	118.16