MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for September EuroFX(CME) as of Nov 09, 2020
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		20	21	21	22	22	22	22	22	22	22	22
Closed Higher		10	8	13	8	10	10	11	8	13	11	11
Exceeded High		9	6	9	7	8	9	9	7	9	10	7
Scenario Percentage		90%	75%	69%	88%	80%	90%	82%	88%	69%	91%	64%
Avg Max Increase		3.38%	4.91%	3.02%	2.78%	3.97%	5.28%	3.58%	4.30%	4.02%	2.32%	2.08%
Max Increase		7.08%	9.54%	4.49%	6.78%	7.66%	9.76%	11.14%	9.75%	8.77%	5.75%	4.67%
Avg Days To Max Increase		22	22	12	18	21	20	15	17	19	9	7
Avg Max Decline		-0.77%	-0.53%	-1.40%	-1.49%	-0.98%	-1.37%	-0.74%	-0.83%	-1.24%	-0.94%	-0.78%
Max Decline		-2.07%	-1.46%	-3.84%	-2.98%	-2.74%	-3.12%	-2.77%	-2.07%	-3.04%	-2.49%	-2.83%
Avg Days to Max Decline		9	6	9	13	7	8	4	6	6	7	2
2020 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes					Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes		No					Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		20	21	21	22	22	22	22	22	22	22	22
Closed Lower		10	13	8	14	12	12	11	14	9	11	11
Penetrated Low		10	10	8	10	11	9	8	13	5	8	7
Scenario Percentage		100%	77%	100%	71%	92%	75%	73%	93%	56%	73%	64%
Avg Max Decline		2.89%	3.26%	3.95%	4.17%	3.68%	5.02%	4.93%	2.30%	3.27%	4.54%	2.35%
Max Decline		5.60%	10.70%	8.23%	7.32%	7.09%	10.05%	10.71%	3.70%	5.96%	10.78%	5.13%
Avg Days To Max Decline		13	19	19	17	18	26	15	16	16	8	9
Avg Max Increase		-0.73%	-2.04%	-0.98%	-1.63%	-0.95%	-1.29%	-0.62%	-1.87%	-0.39%	-0.95%	-0.75%
Max Increase		-2.88%	-3.65%	-2.63%	-3.64%	-3.86%	-2.82%	-2.13%	-4.12%	-1.01%	-1.67%	-1.58%
Avg Days to Max Increase		8	19	5	9	9	11	3	15	3	6	2
2020 Contract Condition			Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action			Yes		Yes	Yes	No	No
High	113.58	113.98	113.84	114.15	113.76	112.11	115.72	111.00	111.70	114.47	119.20	119.73
Low	111.64	111.57	111.97	112.48	111.48	109.13	107.01	107.63	107.97	111.26	112.02	117.07
Close/Last	111.64	113.64	112.19	114.08	112.37	111.42	110.80	109.84	111.23	112.54	118.00	119.40