MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for September EuroFX(CME) as of Oct 20, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		19	20	20	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21
Closed Higher		9	8	12	8	10	10	11	7	12	10	10
Exceeded High		8	6	9	7	8	9	9	6	8	9	6
Scenario Percentage		89%	75%	75%	88%	80%	90%	82%	86%	67%	90%	60%
Avg Max Increase		3.74%	4.91%	3.02%	2.78%	3.97%	5.28%	3.58%	3.82%	3.72%	2.37%	2.33%
Max Increase		7.08%	9.54%	4.49%	6.78%	7.66%	9.76%	11.14%	9.75%	8.77%	5.75%	4.67%
Avg Days To Max Increase		21	22	12	18	21	20	15	15	19	10	9
Avg Max Decline		-0.69%	-0.53%	-1.40%	-1.49%	-0.98%	-1.37%	-0.74%	-0.97%	-1.34%	-0.95%	-0.86%
Max Decline		-2.07%	-1.46%	-3.84%	-2.98%	-2.74%	-3.12%	-2.77%	-2.07%	-3.04%	-2.49%	-2.83%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	6	9	13	7	8	4	7	6	7	2
2019 Contract Condition				Yes						Yes
Action				Yes						No

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		19	20	20	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21
Closed Lower		10	12	8	13	11	11	10	14	9	11	11
Penetrated Low		10	9	8	9	10	9	8	13	5	8	7
Scenario Percentage		100%	75%	100%	69%	91%	82%	80%	93%	56%	73%	64%
Avg Max Decline		2.89%	3.55%	3.95%	4.11%	3.66%	5.02%	4.93%	2.30%	3.27%	4.57%	2.38%
Max Decline		5.60%	10.70%	8.23%	7.32%	7.09%	10.05%	10.71%	3.70%	5.96%	10.78%	5.13%
Avg Days To Max Decline		13	18	19	16	17	26	15	16	16	9	9
Avg Max Increase		-0.73%	-2.08%	-0.98%	-1.48%	-0.66%	-1.29%	-0.62%	-1.87%	-0.39%	-0.95%	-0.75%
Max Increase		-2.88%	-3.65%	-2.63%	-3.64%	-2.00%	-2.82%	-2.13%	-4.12%	-1.01%	-1.67%	-1.58%
Avg Days to Max Increase		8	18	5	6	9	11	3	15	3	6	2
2019 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
High	121.88	119.81	118.39	117.55	118.15	116.97	116.21	114.71	113.95	114.86	114.40	112.85
Low	119.15	116.50	115.54	115.63	115.20	114.38	113.57	112.48	112.12	112.57	111.02	109.76
Close/Last	119.80	116.51	116.06	117.04	116.66	115.68	113.74	113.52	112.71	114.47	111.28	109.90