MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for September EuroFX(CME) as of Jan 01, 2016
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		15	16	16	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17
Closed Higher		9	7	9	6	9	7	9	6	10	7	9
Exceeded High		8	5	6	5	7	7	7	5	7	7	5
Scenario Percentage		89%	71%	67%	83%	78%	100%	78%	83%	70%	100%	56%
Avg Max Increase		3.74%	4.92%	2.93%	3.55%	3.86%	5.78%	3.73%	3.58%	3.48%	2.54%	2.48%
Max Increase		7.08%	9.54%	3.92%	6.78%	7.66%	9.76%	11.14%	9.75%	8.77%	5.75%	4.67%
Avg Days To Max Increase		21	21	12	17	23	22	15	12	17	10	9
Avg Max Decline		-0.69%	-0.34%	-1.56%	-1.16%	-0.99%	-1.39%	-0.87%	-0.92%	-1.40%	-0.83%	-0.94%
Max Decline		-2.07%	-0.77%	-3.84%	-2.81%	-2.74%	-3.12%	-2.77%	-2.07%	-3.04%	-2.49%	-2.83%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	5	11	11	7	5	4	4	7	6	3
2015 Contract Condition								Yes		Yes		Yes
Action								Yes		Yes		Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		15	16	16	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17
Closed Lower		6	9	7	11	8	10	8	11	7	10	8
Penetrated Low		6	6	7	8	7	8	6	10	4	7	6
Scenario Percentage		100%	67%	100%	73%	88%	80%	75%	91%	57%	70%	75%
Avg Max Decline		2.91%	4.73%	4.25%	4.29%	4.46%	5.47%	5.50%	2.47%	3.22%	4.93%	2.64%
Max Decline		5.07%	10.70%	8.23%	7.32%	7.09%	10.05%	10.71%	3.70%	5.96%	10.78%	5.13%
Avg Days To Max Decline		15	22	22	17	17	26	13	14	16	8	8
Avg Max Increase		-0.36%	-1.88%	-1.22%	-1.63%	-0.61%	-1.35%	-0.76%	-1.85%	-0.24%	-0.88%	-0.72%
Max Increase		-1.56%	-3.60%	-2.63%	-3.64%	-1.47%	-2.82%	-2.13%	-4.12%	-1.01%	-1.67%	-1.58%
Avg Days to Max Increase		10	18	5	6	6	11	4	13	2	6	2
2015 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No		Yes		Not Yet
High	131.96	128.48	126.12	125.54	120.99	115.60	112.69	112.90	114.85	114.50	112.26	117.18
Low	126.79	125.43	124.20	121.29	111.35	112.12	104.94	105.45	108.37	109.04	108.17	108.52
Close/Last	126.79	125.61	124.69	121.34	113.23	112.26	107.70	112.80	109.97	111.56	109.71	112.39