MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for September EuroFX(CME) as of Jan 01, 2014
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		13	14	14	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15
Closed Higher		8	7	8	6	8	7	7	6	8	7	8
Exceeded High		7	5	5	5	6	7	5	5	5	7	5
Scenario Percentage		88%	71%	63%	83%	75%	100%	71%	83%	63%	100%	63%
Avg Max Increase		4.05%	4.92%	3.47%	3.55%	4.33%	5.78%	4.68%	3.58%	3.86%	2.54%	2.48%
Max Increase		7.08%	9.54%	3.92%	6.78%	7.66%	9.76%	11.14%	9.75%	8.77%	5.75%	4.67%
Avg Days To Max Increase		20	21	8	17	24	22	16	12	20	10	9
Avg Max Decline		-0.49%	-0.34%	-1.43%	-1.16%	-1.02%	-1.39%	-0.79%	-0.92%	-1.32%	-0.83%	-0.94%
Max Decline		-1.94%	-0.77%	-3.84%	-2.81%	-2.74%	-3.12%	-2.77%	-2.07%	-2.06%	-2.49%	-2.83%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	5	7	11	7	5	4	4	5	6	3
2013 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes		Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes		Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		13	14	14	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15
Closed Lower		5	7	6	9	7	8	8	9	7	8	7
Penetrated Low		5	5	6	7	6	7	6	8	4	6	5
Scenario Percentage		100%	71%	100%	78%	86%	88%	75%	89%	57%	75%	71%
Avg Max Decline		2.81%	3.54%	3.59%	3.86%	4.12%	6.06%	5.50%	2.64%	3.22%	5.13%	2.80%
Max Decline		5.07%	5.81%	5.98%	6.39%	7.09%	10.05%	10.71%	3.70%	5.96%	10.78%	5.13%
Avg Days To Max Decline		12	22	21	18	18	26	13	11	16	8	9
Avg Max Increase		-0.35%	-2.12%	-1.48%	-1.56%	-0.64%	-1.32%	-0.76%	-1.74%	-0.24%	-0.96%	-0.82%
Max Increase		-1.56%	-3.60%	-2.63%	-3.64%	-1.47%	-2.82%	-2.13%	-3.34%	-1.01%	-1.67%	-1.58%
Avg Days to Max Increase		11	19	6	7	6	8	4	10	2	7	2
2013 Contract Condition						Yes	Yes		Yes			Yes
Action						Yes	No		Yes			Yes
High	131.60	131.66	130.60	133.38	135.92	137.00	131.50	132.14	132.50	134.24	133.47	134.54
Low	126.35	129.01	127.51	129.39	130.30	130.44	127.70	127.70	128.10	129.63	127.55	131.73
Close/Last	129.01	130.03	130.39	132.33	135.87	130.84	128.33	131.75	129.90	130.23	133.39	132.08