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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for June EuroFX(CME) as of Jul 19, 2025
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Tested Years   25 25 25 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 27
Closed Higher   13 11 11 11 11 17 10 10 12 14 11
Exceeded High   11 8 8 10 9 11 9 8 11 11 8
Scenario Percentage   85% 73% 73% 91% 82% 65% 90% 80% 92% 79% 73%
Avg Max Increase   2.96% 2.80% 3.69% 3.96% 4.45% 3.01% 3.00% 4.04% 5.18% 2.74% 1.71%
Max Increase   6.39% 5.50% 7.34% 8.01% 9.95% 4.57% 6.98% 7.84% 9.75% 7.18% 3.39%
Avg Days To Max Increase   16 12 19 21 20 9 16 21 20 12 9
Avg Max Decline   -1.09% -0.62% -1.05% -1.02% -0.71% -1.50% -1.41% -1.07% -1.22% -0.89% -0.52%
Max Decline   -2.98% -2.62% -1.93% -2.17% -1.46% -3.69% -2.99% -2.73% -3.07% -2.80% -1.31%
Avg Days to Max Decline   13 2 12 9 5 8 10 7 7 5 3
2025 Contract Condition   Yes Yes Yes       Yes   Yes Yes  
Action   Yes No No       Yes   Yes Yes  
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Tested Years   25 25 25 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 27
Closed Lower   12 14 14 14 15 9 17 17 15 13 16
Penetrated Low   8 12 13 12 12 8 13 15 12 9 7
Scenario Percentage   67% 86% 93% 86% 80% 89% 76% 88% 80% 69% 44%
Avg Max Decline   4.93% 3.73% 3.20% 2.97% 3.25% 4.01% 3.93% 3.62% 4.53% 4.56% 1.56%
Max Decline   10.45% 14.53% 12.41% 5.69% 10.74% 8.26% 7.38% 7.17% 10.14% 10.78% 3.65%
Avg Days To Max Decline   20 16 14 15 19 19 17 19 22 13 8
Avg Max Increase   -0.83% -0.77% -0.83% -0.68% -1.96% -1.00% -1.68% -0.96% -1.18% -0.67% -0.58%
Max Increase   -1.44% -1.74% -2.80% -2.95% -3.76% -2.76% -3.74% -4.07% -2.96% -2.33% -0.98%
Avg Days to Max Increase   11 7 8 9 20 4 10 8 10 4 3
2025 Contract Condition         Yes Yes Yes   Yes     Yes
Action         Yes Yes Yes   No     Not Yet
High 111.06 111.01 113.30 113.08 112.30 110.50 107.04 106.07 105.91 110.09 116.13 114.34
Low 108.59 108.90 109.32 111.30 108.94 105.07 104.31 102.56 102.85 104.49 108.25 110.89
Close/Last 108.97 109.88 111.79 112.43 109.87 106.79 104.41 104.48 104.27 108.62 113.80 113.70

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