MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for June EuroFX(CME) as of Dec 30, 2016
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May
Tested Years		16	16	16	16	17	17	18	18	18	18	18
Closed Higher		7	8	9	9	7	10	6	10	8	10	6
Exceeded High		7	6	8	8	5	6	5	8	8	8	4
Scenario Percentage		100%	75%	89%	89%	71%	60%	83%	80%	100%	80%	67%
Avg Max Increase		3.47%	3.40%	3.69%	3.89%	5.08%	3.88%	3.69%	4.04%	5.34%	2.75%	2.00%
Max Increase		6.39%	5.50%	7.34%	7.06%	9.95%	4.57%	6.98%	7.84%	9.75%	6.89%	3.39%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	14	19	20	21	10	17	21	19	12	7
Avg Max Decline		-1.17%	-0.72%	-1.05%	-0.89%	-0.65%	-1.67%	-1.28%	-1.07%	-1.42%	-0.79%	-0.50%
Max Decline		-2.98%	-2.62%	-1.93%	-2.17%	-1.13%	-3.69%	-2.92%	-2.73%	-3.07%	-2.80%	-0.82%
Avg Days to Max Decline		17	3	12	7	6	6	9	7	7	4	2
2016 Contract Condition			Yes				Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
Action			No				Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May
Tested Years		16	16	16	16	17	17	18	18	18	18	18
Closed Lower		9	8	7	7	10	7	12	8	10	8	12
Penetrated Low		5	6	7	6	7	6	8	7	9	6	7
Scenario Percentage		56%	75%	100%	86%	70%	86%	67%	88%	90%	75%	58%
Avg Max Decline		5.46%	4.42%	4.29%	3.29%	4.18%	4.75%	4.37%	4.58%	4.94%	5.46%	1.56%
Max Decline		10.45%	14.53%	12.41%	5.24%	10.74%	8.26%	7.38%	7.17%	10.14%	10.78%	3.65%
Avg Days To Max Decline		15	16	19	13	20	23	17	17	24	9	8
Avg Max Increase		-0.80%	-0.52%	-1.11%	-0.22%	-2.28%	-1.29%	-1.82%	-0.66%	-1.38%	-0.82%	-0.58%
Max Increase		-1.44%	-1.74%	-2.80%	-0.64%	-3.76%	-2.76%	-3.74%	-1.59%	-2.96%	-2.33%	-0.98%
Avg Days to Max Increase		8	5	6	12	16	4	7	6	10	5	3
2016 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes				Yes
Action		No		Yes	Yes	Yes		No				Not Yet
High	115.06	112.86	117.53	115.05	115.40	111.06	111.17	110.31	114.16	114.38	114.86	116.31
Low	110.21	108.90	109.23	111.62	109.58	106.05	105.88	107.61	108.57	108.53	112.34	111.03
Close/Last	112.24	110.37	113.02	112.26	110.58	106.38	109.17	108.70	109.18	114.12	114.65	111.30