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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for March EuroFX(CME) as of Jul 07, 2025
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years   26 26 26 26 26 26 26 27 27 27 27
Closed Higher   13 11 14 12 12 11 11 12 18 10 11
Exceeded High   10 8 9 11 8 8 10 11 13 9 7
Scenario Percentage   77% 73% 64% 92% 67% 73% 91% 92% 72% 90% 64%
Avg Max Increase   3.21% 3.66% 4.15% 3.03% 2.86% 3.81% 4.02% 4.64% 2.85% 2.78% 2.10%
Max Increase   10.46% 8.80% 8.32% 6.26% 5.57% 7.34% 8.15% 9.97% 4.59% 7.05% 4.60%
Avg Days To Max Increase   16 17 20 16 12 21 18 17 9 10 12
Avg Max Decline   -0.50% -0.69% -1.24% -1.12% -0.53% -1.19% -1.10% -0.67% -1.52% -1.18% -0.72%
Max Decline   -2.52% -1.72% -3.00% -3.07% -2.62% -2.19% -2.30% -1.56% -3.70% -2.93% -1.23%
Avg Days to Max Decline   6 7 6 13 2 13 9 4 7 7 3
2025 Contract Condition     Yes   Yes Yes Yes       Yes  
Action     Yes   Yes No No       Yes  
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years   26 26 26 26 26 26 26 27 27 27 27
Closed Lower   13 15 12 13 14 15 15 15 9 17 16
Penetrated Low   9 14 9 10 12 14 12 12 8 15 12
Scenario Percentage   69% 93% 75% 77% 86% 93% 80% 80% 89% 88% 75%
Avg Max Decline   4.34% 2.06% 2.87% 4.99% 4.23% 3.55% 3.07% 3.29% 4.03% 2.94% 2.17%
Max Decline   10.39% 3.49% 5.94% 10.70% 14.97% 12.74% 5.75% 10.78% 8.30% 7.37% 6.54%
Avg Days To Max Decline   14 16 16 19 17 14 15 19 14 7 7
Avg Max Increase   -0.58% -1.67% -0.35% -0.87% -0.89% -0.84% -0.90% -2.04% -1.05% -1.33% -0.39%
Max Increase   -2.10% -3.95% -2.07% -2.18% -1.99% -2.88% -2.98% -3.82% -2.80% -3.79% -1.59%
Avg Days to Max Increase   8 13 8 12 7 8 4 22 4 7 2
2025 Contract Condition   Yes   Yes       Yes Yes Yes   Yes
Action   No   No       Yes Yes Yes   Not Yet
High 111.42 110.48 110.53 110.63 110.67 112.96 112.82 112.16 110.01 106.78 105.58 105.40
Low 109.49 107.82 108.21 108.12 108.49 108.95 110.91 108.35 103.92 103.78 102.05 102.31
Close/Last 109.62 108.46 109.92 108.51 109.44 111.43 112.05 109.37 106.21 103.89 103.97 103.75

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