MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March EuroFX(CME) as of Sep 16, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		23	23	23	23	23	23	23	24	24	24	24
Closed Higher		12	9	13	10	11	10	10	10	16	8	11
Exceeded High		10	7	8	10	8	8	9	9	12	7	6
Scenario Percentage		83%	78%	62%	100%	73%	80%	90%	90%	75%	88%	55%
Avg Max Increase		3.21%	4.08%	4.26%	3.01%	2.86%	3.81%	3.56%	4.94%	2.85%	2.38%	2.03%
Max Increase		10.46%	8.80%	8.32%	6.26%	5.57%	7.34%	7.01%	9.97%	4.59%	5.58%	3.16%
Avg Days To Max Increase		16	17	20	15	12	21	19	15	9	10	11
Avg Max Decline		-0.50%	-0.56%	-1.31%	-1.18%	-0.53%	-1.19%	-1.05%	-0.62%	-1.47%	-1.27%	-0.64%
Max Decline		-2.52%	-1.72%	-3.00%	-3.07%	-2.62%	-2.19%	-2.30%	-1.51%	-3.70%	-2.93%	-1.18%
Avg Days to Max Decline		6	6	7	14	2	13	10	4	7	8	3
2022 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes							Yes
Action		Yes	No							Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		23	23	23	23	23	23	23	24	24	24	24
Closed Lower		11	14	10	12	12	13	13	14	8	16	13
Penetrated Low		8	14	8	9	10	13	11	11	7	14	10
Scenario Percentage		73%	100%	80%	75%	83%	100%	85%	79%	88%	88%	77%
Avg Max Decline		4.62%	2.06%	2.49%	4.75%	4.17%	3.73%	2.89%	3.23%	4.35%	2.97%	2.20%
Max Decline		10.39%	3.49%	5.73%	10.70%	14.97%	12.74%	5.75%	10.78%	8.30%	7.37%	6.54%
Avg Days To Max Decline		14	16	15	19	17	14	13	20	14	7	6
Avg Max Increase		-0.58%	-1.67%	-0.41%	-0.82%	-0.90%	-0.89%	-0.93%	-2.18%	-1.09%	-1.39%	-0.20%
Max Increase		-2.10%	-3.95%	-2.07%	-2.18%	-1.99%	-2.88%	-2.98%	-3.82%	-2.80%	-3.79%	-0.56%
Avg Days to Max Increase		8	13	9	13	8	8	4	24	4	7	2
2022 Contract Condition				Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action				Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
High	122.04	122.31	123.34	123.18	119.65	119.54	119.56	117.32	116.52	114.04	114.96	115.04
Low	118.04	118.16	120.76	119.14	118.13	117.17	116.04	115.64	112.21	112.48	111.31	111.11
Close/Last	118.21	121.09	122.72	119.14	119.13	118.63	116.25	115.96	113.58	114.03	112.54	112.27