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ScenarioSM Study for September Eurodollars(CME) as of Jan 01, 2018 | ||||||||||||
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Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
Tested Month | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug |
Tested Years | 35 | 35 | 35 | 35 | 35 | 36 | 36 | 36 | 36 | 36 | 36 | |
Closed Higher | 23 | 18 | 20 | 20 | 18 | 13 | 21 | 17 | 25 | 24 | 23 | |
Exceeded High | 18 | 17 | 19 | 14 | 17 | 10 | 18 | 13 | 19 | 24 | 14 | |
Scenario Percentage | 78% | 94% | 95% | 70% | 94% | 77% | 86% | 76% | 76% | 100% | 61% | |
Avg Max Increase | 0.66% | 0.68% | 0.59% | 0.38% | 0.36% | 0.55% | 0.55% | 0.47% | 0.42% | 0.39% | 0.17% | |
Max Increase | 1.59% | 1.86% | 1.45% | 0.99% | 1.50% | 2.38% | 2.39% | 1.00% | 1.69% | 3.82% | 0.66% | |
Avg Days To Max Increase | 16 | 17 | 19 | 13 | 19 | 15 | 16 | 19 | 17 | 8 | 7 | |
Avg Max Decline | -0.07% | -0.13% | -0.17% | -0.10% | -0.24% | -0.12% | -0.07% | -0.06% | -0.06% | -0.05% | -0.02% | |
Max Decline | -0.45% | -0.41% | -0.67% | -0.33% | -1.06% | -0.34% | -0.55% | -0.28% | -0.27% | -0.17% | -0.10% | |
Avg Days to Max Decline | 6 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |
2017 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||||||||
Action | Yes | No | Yes | Yes |
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.